The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and Kirk Cousins is playing the best football the franchise has seen in years. The New England Patriots are missing four cornerbacks but are still the heavy favorite.
Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 62% to win Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
When and where do the Raiders play the Patriots in Week 5 of the 2026 season?
The Raiders and Patriots kick off Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Who is favored to win the Raiders vs. Patriots Week 5 game?
New England is the favorite, and Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 62% to win. The Patriots went 14-3 and won the AFC East last season before losing Super Bowl LX to the Seahawks. They are 2-2 under head coach Mike Vrabel with Drake Maye at quarterback, after a season-opening loss at Seattle, a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 3 and a 29-26 win over the Bills in Week 4. As of this writing, cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Christian Gonzalez, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada, fullback Reggie Gilliam and receiver Mack Hollins are out, while tackle Morgan Moses and running back Rhamondre Stevenson are questionable.
The Raiders are 3-1 under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and they have already surpassed their win total from a 3-14 season in 2025. Las Vegas opened 3-0, including a 35-27 win over the Saints, before a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs in Week 4. As of this writing, receivers Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton and guard Trey Zuhn are out, and running back Ashton Jeanty is questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
New England enters as the No. 11 team in the league with a Power Score of 59.0, and Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 64% to make the playoffs. Las Vegas ranks 14th with a Power Score of 47.5, and Kalshi traders have the Raiders at 39% to qualify, a 3-spot gap heading into Foxborough.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 62% to win and the Raiders at 38%.
What is the point spread for Raiders vs. Patriots in Week 5?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 49% to win by more than 3.5 points.
What is the projected point total?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game at 48% to finish over 45.5 total points.
What is the biggest storyline in the Raiders vs. Patriots Week 5 game?
The sharpest storyline is New England's cornerback room. As of this writing, Gonzalez, Davis, Prunty and Canada are all out, which leaves the Patriots thin in the secondary against Cousins, who threw for 365 yards in last week's loss to the Chiefs.
What are the Raiders' and Patriots' expectations entering the 2026 season?
Las Vegas Raiders: Kalshi traders have the Raiders at 39% to reach the playoffs.
New England Patriots: Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 64% to reach the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have New England as a clear favorite at 62% to win, and the swing factor is a depleted Patriots secondary against Cousins. Kalshi's prices for Raiders vs. Patriots will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Raiders vs. Patriots? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game at 48% to finish over 45.5 total points.
What is the spread for Raiders vs. Patriots? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 49% to win by more than 3.5 points.
Who is favored to win, Raiders or Patriots? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 62% to win and the Raiders at 38%.
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