Real-time political markets: How news, debates, and elections move prices

It’s no surprise that you are starting to see prediction markets everywhere. In the modern era, the news cycle is no longer measured in days or hours; it is measured in milliseconds. Prediction markets have proven to be the go-to source for processing every bit of breaking news into the practical implications for a whole host of issues that people care about.

When people turn on the news, it seems to get crazier by the day, and the immediate reaction is often: “What does this actually mean for me? Is this actually serious?” Whether it’s political instability in the Middle East, a world leader calling for regime change, or the sudden release of scandalous opposition research, it can be hard to separate sensationalism, clickbait, or narratives from reality. Prediction markets, sometimes referred to as political betting (though this is a misnomer, since it is more akin to trading stocks or futures than it is to sports betting or gambling), break through this noise by attaching prices and therefore a probability, to these events.

Prediction markets are decentralized forecasting tools where participants trade on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are typically binary: a "Yes" contract pays out $1.00 if the event occurs and $0.00 if it does not. If a contract trades at $0.33, the market signals a 33% chance of that outcome. Traders familiar with sports betting might think of the price as they would odds. They are similar, but because prediction markets are not setting the odds or price, exchanges and sportsbooks operate very differently, which is an important distinction.

Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and PredictIt are the leaders of prediction market platforms, but Kalshi stands out as the largest prediction market that is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In 2024, Kalshi famously secured a landmark legal victory against the CFTC, which had previously attempted to block election-related contracts. Since this legal victory, Kalshi was able to offer its largest market, the Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Presidential market in 2024, among other election markets (e.g. popular vote, state-specific markets).

For decades, political polling was the undisputed "gold standard" for understanding where an election stood. Recently, however, people have started to look at prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and PredictIt for real-time updates on where a race stands. While a poll is a static snapshot of the past, a real-time market is a living forecast of the future. Prediction markets have increasingly been referenced after presidential debates, big news stories drop, and on election night to get the real-time market sentiment of an election, filtering out the noise of social media and biased punditry.

If you look at a price chart for a high-stakes election or a major policy decision, you’ll notice it rarely moves in a straight line. It is characterized by sharp spikes and dips that occur within minutes or even seconds throughout the day. 

Political prediction markets react to breaking news with near-instantaneous recalibration. A perfect example occurred during the 2024 Presidential election when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Donald Trump. While traditional polls were rendered obsolete for weeks because they still included RFK Jr. as an independent candidate, prediction markets moved in real time. Instead of waiting for a pundit’s analysis, the market provided a live "net effect" score, allowing everyone to see the practical implications of the endorsement as it happened.

On election nights, the lag between reality captured in prediction markets and traditional news reporting is most apparent. During the 2024 Presidential election, long before major networks made their official calls, traders were watching "bellwether" data. Specifically, when the first results from Loudoun County, Virginia, and other key early-reporting areas came in, Trump’s odds on many platforms spiked past 90%. Traders recognized the shift in margins hours before the pundits caught up.

Debates are arguably the most volatile "scheduled" events in any market. Look back at the June 2024 Biden-Trump debate. Before the event, the Presidential race was priced pretty closely. Within the first 30 minutes of the broadcast, President Biden’s odds began a historic nosedive, dropping from the high 40s to below 30 cents on some exchanges. The likelihood that Biden was the Democratic nominee similarly took a nosedive as well. 

What causes intraday price movements in political markets? Sometimes, it isn't just news; it’s the players themselves. A famous example is the French "whale" who moved prices significantly on Polymarket in late 2024 by trading over $50 million on Trump to win. At the time, critics thought the market was being "manipulated." In hindsight, it was revealed that the whale had commissioned his own private "neighbor polls,” asking people who they thought their neighbors would vote for, which gave him a signal that mainstream polls were missing. The market price moved to reflect his massive buy-ins, providing a public signal of high-conviction information that was not yet common knowledge.

Prediction markets can help users understand macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. For instance, as the U.S. military operation in Venezuela unfolded in early 2026, the market for Nicolás Maduro’s ouster saw wild swings. When news of U.S. airspace directives broke, his odds of remaining in power plummeted within minutes. These shifts have a direct "domino effect" on other markets, such as gas prices (a popular contract on Kalshi) and the likelihood of other world leaders (e.g., in Iran) remaining in power. When one geopolitical pillar moves, traders immediately price in the "contagion" effect on the rest of the world. 

Navigating a fast-moving prediction marketplace requires more than just political knowledge; it requires a trader's discipline. Because these markets move in milliseconds, your ability to filter information determines your success.

To get ahead of the curve, you must bypass traditional journalist gatekeepers. By the time a story hits the nightly news or a major digital front page, the market has likely already moved. Successful traders often use X or real-time news aggregators to see raw data and primary sources as they emerge. However, this speed comes with a warning: you must be able to sniff out "fake news" or biased reporting intended to spark a temporary panic.

Before placing a trade based on a headline, verify the source. Does this account or outlet have a history of reliable, non-partisan information? In a high-stakes election, scoops are often leaked by interested parties to move the needle. Cross-referencing a headline across multiple independent feeds is the only way to ensure the information you are getting is accurate.

You must understand exactly what the market is answering. For example, in a market about a new bill, does the contract resolve when the House passes the bill, or does it require the President’s signature? A "Yes" on the former could be a "No" on the latter if a veto is expected. Always read the settlement rules to ensure your trade aligns with the technical reality of the outcome.

Political markets are prone to emotional overreactions. A sensationalist headline might cause a 10-cent price swing in seconds. However, savvy traders will read the full story before trading. Frequently, the "bombshell" is less significant than the headline suggests, creating an opportunity for "mean-reversion" where you trade against the initial market panic.

As we move through 2026, the landscape of political forecasting is constantly undergoing transformation.

Real-time political markets, such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and PredictIt, have fundamentally changed how we understand the world and politics. By shifting the focus from "what people say" to "what people are willing to place real money on," these platforms provide a level of clarity and predictive power that traditional media and polling simply cannot match.

From the 2024 presidential showdown to the unfolding geopolitical shifts of 2026, prediction markets have proven to be the most reliable first responders to breaking news. They filter out the noise of social media, ignore the bias of pundits, and provide a transparent, incentive-aligned way to forecast the future.