Reds vs. Mariners predictions: Chase Burns looks to flip the series in Seattle

Chase Burns takes the mound Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. But he'll face a Seattle Mariners lineup that posted eight runs on Monday night and is in first place in the AL West.

Traders on Kalshi give Seattle the edge at 53%, with Cincinnati at 48%.

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Seattle enters Game 2 riding an 8-0 series-opener win Monday night, powered by Cal Raleigh's sixth career grand slam and six strong innings from George Kirby. The Mariners improved to 51-50, climbing back above .500 for the first time since early July, and moved a half-game ahead of Texas atop the AL West. Cincinnati fell to 45-54 with the shutout loss and remains 17.5 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central, with a shrinking window to chase a wild card spot in the second half.

Chase Burns arrives at this start as one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The 23-year-old right-hander is 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts in 102.2 innings across 18 starts. Cincinnati is 14-4 in his outings this season. Burns signed a seven-year, $105 million contract extension last week, the largest ever given to a pitcher with fewer than four years of service time, a reflection of how quickly he has established himself as the franchise cornerstone in Cincinnati.

The Reds offense heads into Tuesday cold, held to zero runs on three hits Monday by Kirby and three Seattle relievers. Elly De La Cruz, the team's most dangerous hitter, has been on a tear lately, hitting .325 with three home runs over his last ten games and carrying a .773 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He figures as the most dangerous test Castillo will face in the early innings.

Luis Castillo counters for Seattle at 3-8 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 18 appearances this season. The veteran right-hander has not been the All-Star-caliber arm of recent years, giving up 12 home runs and struggling to keep runners off base. His last start before the All-Star break saw him surrender three home runs, and Tuesday he faces a Burns-led Cincinnati rotation that gives the Reds a clear edge on the mound.

Still, Seattle's lineup showed its ceiling Monday. Raleigh's 408-foot grand slam in the seventh was the decisive blow in a dominant night, and Julio Rodriguez drove in a run before leaving with an apparent hamstring injury. Weston Wilson stepped in for Rodriguez and knocked in a run of his own. Cal Raleigh, the reigning AL MVP runner-up, is batting just .163 this season despite ten home runs, a sign that the power is there even when the average has lagged.

Tuesday's result carries direct implications for the AL West standings. Traders on Kalshi give Seattle a 61% chance to win the division, with Texas at 33% and Houston fading at 9%. A Mariners win Tuesday would push their division lead to one and a half games over the Rangers, adding urgency to a second half that already has the feel of a two-team race.

While Cincinnati has little left to play for in the division, the NL Central race is essentially over on Kalshi. Traders give Milwaukee an 88% chance to win the division, with the Chicago Cubs trailing at 11%. The Reds check in at just 1%, 17.5 games back with Burns as the lone bright spot on a roster that has otherwise underperformed its preseason expectations.

The Los Angeles Dodgers remain the World Series frontrunner on Kalshi at 33%, well ahead of the field. Seattle sits at 7%, a figure that reflects both the promise of a division lead and the uncertainty of a roster that is one game over .500. A deep playoff run for the Mariners would likely require Castillo to rediscover his earlier form, something Tuesday's matchup against Burns will test early.

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