Sense and Sensibility Rotten Tomatoes odds: Can the new Austen adaptation stay Fresh?

A new adaptation of Jane Austen’s classic novel Sense and Sensibility arrives in theaters Friday, and Kalshi traders are forecasting its Rotten Tomatoes score.

Kalshi traders currently forecast a 74% Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score for Sense and Sensibility. The film currently holds a 75% “Fresh” rating on the review aggregation site.

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Directed by Georgia Oakley, the film adapts Austen's acclaimed 1811 novel about the Dashwood sisters, whose lives are upended after their father's death leaves the family financially vulnerable.

Elinor (Daisy Edgar-Jones) and Marianne (Esmé Creed-Miles) navigate romance and social expectations while their mother (Caitriona Balfe) struggles to secure the family's future. Elinor develops feelings for Edward Ferrars (George MacKay), while Marianne becomes involved with the charming John Willoughby (Frank Dillane), complicating her relationship with Colonel Brandon (Herbert Nordrum).

Critics who liked the movie praised its ability to stick to the source material and still tell an effective and relevant story for a modern audience.

The Associated Press’ Jocelyn Noveck wrote that Oakley effectively shifts the focus between the two main sisters that feels natural and pertinent to modern audiences.

“Oakley, seeking a 21^st-century approach to the Austen classics, finds a way to subtly shift the weight from romantic chemistry to the more profound chemistry between no-nonsense Elinor (Edgar-Jones in the “sense” role) and turbulent Marianne (Esmé Creed-Miles, in the “sensibility” role),” Noveck wrote. “And this alone – well, and two killer dance scenes – seems reason enough to revisit the story, three decades since Ang Lee’s 1995 version won Emma Thompson a screenplay Oscar.”

IndieWire’s Ryan Lattanzio wrote that there have been numerous adaptations of Austen’s novel including an upcoming Netflix series, but Edgar-Jones’ standout performance breathes new life into the classic work.

“She meshes smoothly into the textures of this world, with the occasional outburst of emotion that’s made Elinor such a fascinating contradiction,” Lattanzio wrote.

Slant Magazine’s Derek Smith praised the rest of the cast for their vibrant performances of these classic characters.

“George MacKay strikes the right balance of aloofness and awkward tenderness as Elinor’s love interest, Edward, while Frank Dillane is delightful as the cheeky, dastardly Willoughby, who preys on Marianne’s unbridled passion only to realize that his feelings for her may be real,” Smith wrote.

Other critics found the adaptation visually drab and less emotionally engaging than previous versions of Austen's novel.

The Daily Beast’s Nick Schager wrote that the film’s look feels dreary and dull compared to its Oscar-winning predecessor.

“Because Ang Lee and Emma Thompson’s Oscar-winning 1995 Sense and Sensibility remains an excellent take on Austen’s classic, Georgia Oakley’s rendition can’t help but feel like a relatively unnecessary do-over,” Schager wrote.

The AV Club’s Monica Castillo described this version of Sense and Sensibility as a mismatched adaptation of Austen’s novel.

“In trying to put her own stamp on this beloved story, Oakley forgets to focus on the emotional subtleties of the characters’ heartaches, which is crucial to capturing what has made Austen’s work resonate through the ages,” Castillo wrote.

The Hollywood Reporter’s David Rooney wrote that Oakley’s naturalistic approach comes at the expense of the story’s emotional energy.

“The emphasis on naturalism perhaps removes some of the emotional barriers for young contemporary audiences, but it also gives the movie a low-energy feels and a drab look, with flat light and a dreary color palette,” Rooney wrote.

Despite the divided reviews, Kalshi traders still expect the latest Austen adaptation to finish comfortably above Rotten Tomatoes' 60% threshold for a “Fresh” rating.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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