As the vote count continues in the Los Angeles mayoral election on Friday afternoon, Spencer Pratt is leading city councilwoman Nithya Raman by a tally of 163,549 to 130,473. However, as votes continue to arrive, Kalshi traders seem to be losing faith that Pratt can maintain his lead.
The Los Angeles mayoral election advancement market shows that Pratt’s chances of advancing to round two have dropped from 82% to 23%, on June 1, while Raman’s price has climbed from 26% to 79%.
Pratt’s price has also fallen on the Los Angeles mayor winner market. The former reality star turned politician now has only a 7.5% chance of winning, behind Raman, whose chances sit at 32%. Mayor Karen Bass leads the winner market at 62%.
Many traders likely believe the remaining uncounted ballots will come from areas where Raman is performing more strongly, which could allow her to overtake Pratt’s lead.
President Trump’s endorsement
President Donald Trump did not make an official endorsement of Pratt’s candidacy on Truth Social, like he did with other candidates. However, he did speak favorably about Pratt’s run for LA mayor.
The Hill reports that two weeks ago, President Trump complimented Pratt for being a “big MAGA person” and that “I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character.”
Pratt’s campaign
The San Jose Mercury News’ Teresa Liu writes that Pratt seems to have tapped into a vein of frustration among voters. Political analyst Dan Schnur told the newspaper that Pratt was able to channel “the anger and frustration that many Angelenos feel about their city. He actually managed to out-Mamdani the DSA [Democratic Socialists of America] candidate, which is no mean feat.”
Schnur cited issues like “housing affordability, homelessness, transportation, and city services” as well as “the Palisades and Eaton fires” as some of the key concerns that drove Pratt’s outsider status to top of the field.
“Voters were certainly looking for a way to vent their anger toward City Hall,” Schnur said, “but as the campaign progressed, Pratt emerged as a recognizable way of doing that.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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