Later tonight, President Donald Trump will give his first State of the Union (SOTU) speech of his second term. Given recent headlines, he is likely to cover a litany of topics (tariffs, immigration, the Olympics, the upcoming World Cup, Epstein, etc.).
And while Kalshi has markets on what Trump will discuss during his speech, many traders are focusing on how long the speech will last.
Trump is known to give long speeches. In his most recent State of the Union (SOTU), he took the podium for approximately one hour and 40 minutes. As such, Kalshi is predicting Trump to speak for even longer on Tuesday.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Tonight’s SOTU in Washington, D.C. will begin at 9 p.m. ET. Many traditional media outlets will provide live coverage. With that, let’s have a closer look at what traders are saying right now.
A long-winded address?
Kalshi currently has a 99% probability for Trump’s SOTU to surpass one hour. However, that is the shortest available option. For reference, “80 minutes or above” also has plenty of support, showing a price tag of 88¢.
The action does not even out until after the 90-minute mark. Kalshi’s traders are giving “95 minutes or above” a 72% chance. Meanwhile, “100 minutes or above,” the longest option listed, is priced at 57¢.
Trump’s last SOTU lasted 100 minutes, so perhaps Congress would do well to get comfortable in their seats.
The current forecast is 111.1 minutes.
Auxiliary SOTU markets
Aside from the length of the president’s speech, Kalshi is offering other markets related to the 2026 SOTU. You can currently trade on what Trump will specifically say during his address.
For example, phrases like “Trillion,” “Olympics,” and “AI/artificial intelligence” are all listed above 90¢ at this juncture. This market’s trading volume is nearly $8 million (and counting).
If you’re wondering who will be in attendance at tonight’s SOTU, naturally, there’s a market for that, too. On Tuesday afternoon, names like Ilhan Omar, Erika Kirk and Nick Shirley all show a 99% likelihood to appear.
Kalshi has many other figures available in this market; New Jersey Devils forward (and recent Olympic gold medalist) Jack Hughes and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth are both tagged with a 97% probability to be on hand. Further down, FIFA president Gianni Infantino is priced at just seven cents to attend the SOTU. Meanwhile, U.S. representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has only a two percent chance to show.
There are also markets on Kalshi for what places Trump will mention as well as individuals he might name. You can even trade on whether or not all five of Trump’s children will attend tonight’s SOTU; “Yes” is presently available for 53¢.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
How long will Trump speak at the 2026 State of the Union?
Current projected speech length: 111.1 minutes.
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