The final episode of Survivor 50 airs tonight at 8:00 PM ET, and traders have a clear favorite to take home the title.
The market for the Season 50 winner now prices Aubry Bracco’s chances to win the season at 98%, followed by Joe Hunter and Jonathan Young at 1% each.
In Kalshi’s market on the final vote count, traders also forecast the winner to receive 7.8 votes at tonight's final Tribal Council.
Why Aubry?
The fact that Aubry is favored to win probably doesn’t come as much of a shock to anyone who has been following Kalshi’s Survivor markets. She has been the odds-on favorite to win since the Survivor 50 market was launched last January.
Aside from Kalshi traders, some television critics also seem to like Aubry’s chances.
Recaps of last week's episode point to Aubry methodically positioning herself for a strong Final Tribal Council performance, following the eliminations of Rick Devens and Cirie Fields.
Vulture's Bryan Moylan noted that Aubry has been engineering her path to the end with precision. "This entire episode is setting up her Final Tribal Council speech. It starts with her saying that Jonathan feels like he is the one who voted out Ozzy [Lusth], but it was her he spilled to, her who rallied everyone against him, her who orchestrated that blindside with her own life on the line."
Entertainment Weekly's Dalton Ross also noted that Aubry appeared to be taking "the ammunition Ozzy gave her and using it to orchestrate his demise."
"I don't get super into trying to decipher 'winner edits' like some of you out there," Ross wrote. "Maybe it's because I've seen those predictions be wildly incorrect before. Or perhaps it's due to the fact that I simply don't want to be spoiled so [I] try to ignore it as best I can. But I have to say, this edit sure does make it feel like an Aubry Bracco victory could be loading."
What will Jeff Probst say?
Traders are also weighing in on what Jeff Probst will say during tonight's finale.
The word "auction" is priced at 49%, suggesting a reward challenge auction may be in play. "Trust" sits at 50%, and "medic/medical" at 53% — a signal that tonight's episode may not go smoothly for everyone on the beach.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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