In one of the last major elections before the 2026 midterm year, Republicans are facing a stronger-than-expected challenge from energized Democrats in a special election for the deep-red congressional district of TN-07.
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Tennessee’s 7th district is one of three (along with TN-05 and TN-06) that were redrawn after the 2020 census to eliminate a Democratic seat in Nashville. The district includes strongly Democratic portions of western Nashville before stretching west, adding heavily Republican suburbs and large swaths of rural central Tennessee. The district also includes Clarksville, the fifth-most populous city in Tennessee, which will be a major battleground in the election. In 2024, both President Trump and former Representative Mark Green, whose resignation prompted the special election, won this district by around 22 points.
While this district should not be competitive on paper, Democrats have consistently overperformed by double digits in special-congressional elections throughout 2025, including deeply red FL-01, FL-06, VA-11, and AZ-07. Additionally, boosted by an enthusiasm gap and voters’ discontent with President Trump’s administration thus far, Democrats swept to large victories in last month’s elections across states like Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia. A victory in TN-07 could turbocharge that momentum and send a seismic warning message to Republicans ahead of 2026.
Besides serving as a powerful signal of an impending blue wave, a Democratic victory on Tuesday would also meaningfully complicate the House math for Speaker Mike Johnson by narrowing the GOP’s already-thin majority further. The House is currently split 219R - 213D, with 3 vacancies: TN-07 and 2 solidly blue Democratic districts. If Democrats win TN-07 and hold the other two districts, the House would be split 219R - 216D. This would mean that Mike Johnson could afford, at most, one GOP defection on any full House vote, making it even more difficult to pass legislation along party lines.
The candidates in TN-07 are Aftyn Behn on the Democratic side and Matt Van Epps on the GOP side. Van Epps, a West Point graduate and combat veteran, has hewn close to Trump and national Republicans and attacked Behn as a radical who supports abolishing ICE and defunding the police. Behn, a state representative and unabashed progressive, is running an affordability and cost of living-focused campaign but has had to answer for past comments criticizing police and her home of Nashville. While there has been little public polling in the race, a recent Emerson College poll found a dead heat, with Van Epps at 48% and Behn at 46%. Internal polling from Democrats also shows Behn within striking distance, with a slim GOP lead in the single digits.
Because of both the messaging and governance implications of a Democratic victory, the race has drawn significant national attention, especially in the closing weeks. President Trump and Speaker Johnson are scheduled to appear at a tele-rally for Van Epps on Monday, while Behn has campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris and is set to hold a virtual rally with AOC and Al Gore. Both Republican and Democratic groups have poured millions into ads and GOTV efforts, seeking to energize their bases during the holiday season when politics are typically far from voters’ minds.
Ultimately, even a narrow loss for Behn on December 2 would portend major trouble for the GOP as they fight to hold the House in 2026, with the path to a majority for Democrats running through seats far less Republican than TN-07. Whatever the outcome, the eyes of the nation now turn to Tennessee in search of hints about the future balance of power in Washington - and the fate of Trump’s second term.
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