Traders believe that U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales may be nearing the end of his time in the U.S. House.
The market for Texas’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary shows YouTuber-turned-candidate Brandon Herrera sitting at 92%. Traders also place incumbent Tony Gonzales at 11% and Quico Canseco at 1%.
Gonzales narrowly defeated Herrera in the 2024 Republican primary for his House seat.
Katy Padilla Stout also holds a large lead in the Texas’ 23rd Congressional District Democratic primary market. She sits at 79%, followed by Gretel Enck at 23%, Santos Limon at 10%, and Bruce Richardson at less than 1%.
Which party will win Texas 23?
The gap isn’t as wide as the other two markets, but traders believe the Republicans will likely win Texas 23 in November.
Traders price the Republican Party with a 68% chance.
What upset the Republican primary race?
Gonzales was a clear favorite early on, but found himself thrust into the national spotlight when the San Antonio Express-News published a damning story last month about an extramarital affair with an aide who later took her own life.
The story cited several former staffers who worked in Gonzales’s office and a text message in which the aide admitted to having an “affair with our boss.”
News of the alleged affair prompted members of Gonzales’s own party to call for his immediate resignation. The Associated Press reported that Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, and Nancy Mace of South Carolina have all called for Gonzales to step down from his House seat.
Gonzales has refused to resign or suspend his primary campaign.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.