Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Rep. James Talarico are now tied in the Kalshi market for Texas' U.S. Senate race.
As of Saturday morning, The Texas Senate winner market shows Paxton and Talarico each priced at 50%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
“Time is running out”
The tied race comes as Paxton's campaign faces a significant fundraising disadvantage against Talarico.
The Hill reported that Republican strategist Karl Rove said during an interview on Fox News Radio's The Brian Kilmeade Show that Trump and other Republican supporters need to provide Paxton with more financial backing.
“So, time is running out,” Rove said. “If the president wants to have Paxton win, he needs to be tossing a lot of money Paxton’s way so that ads can be run that depict Talarico as the far-left winger that he is.”
Rove argued that Paxton's fundraising disadvantage could allow Talarico to define the race around controversies involving the attorney general. Talarico’s ads have focused on controversies involving Paxton such as his federal bribery and corruption investigation, his impeachment by the Texas House, and even a $1,000 pen he stole from someone.
“If not, Talarico is going to run the message of, ‘My opponent is the most corrupt politician in Texas history,’ all the way to the victory lane,” Rove said.
Talarico may be running in a state that has traditionally favored Republicans, but he has outraised Paxton by a wide margin. The Texas Tribune reported that Talarico “is setting records, raising more at this stage of the race than any Texas general-election candidate in the past decade and posting the largest quarterly haul of any active Senate race.”
Meanwhile, Paxton has only “raised less than a quarter of what his rival has since the start of the race.”
According to Federal Election Commission filings compiled by The Texas Tribune, Talarico has raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025, compared with $16.8 million for Paxton.
Trump has endorsed Paxton, but his political operation has yet to provide the kind of financial support some Republicans say Paxton needs.
The Daily Beast reported that Trump met with Republican candidates and lawmakers at the White House on Wednesday as the party prepares for the midterms. Paxton was not among those attending.
Trump nevertheless reiterated his support for Paxton while making remarks about the candidate's appearance and television performances.
“Ken Paxton, you might not like the way he dresses. And I say this, it’s so insulting to him, but I might as well say it,” President Trump said. “You might not…like the way he looks. You might not love his look. You might not love his television interviews, but he was the best attorney general in the country, perhaps.”
Who will control the U.S. Senate?
The tight Texas market comes as traders also forecast a close contest for control of the Senate, with Republicans priced at 52% and Democrats at 48%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Gage Skidmore
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
