State Rep. James Talarico's lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has narrowed on Kalshi's Texas Senate market.
Talarico's price fell three percentage points from 66% to 63%, while Paxton's rose from 34% to 37%. The price movement comes with less than a month remaining before Election Day, as Talarico has temporarily stepped away from in-person campaign events while recovering from the flu.
Update: Talarico returned to the campaign trail Friday, appearing at the Austin City Limits music festival in Austin, according to The New York Times. He told reporters he had been sick for seven days with “a nasty case of the flu” and had been “at home sick in bed.”
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Talarico absent from the campaign trail
USA Today reported that Talarico has not held an in-person campaign event in Texas since Sept. 26 or a private fundraiser since Sept. 29, when he appeared in New York. His campaign attributed the absence to the flu and said he expects to return to in-person events this weekend.
“James looks forward to being back out this weekend after recovering from the flu,” campaign spokesperson J.T. Ennis said in a statement.
Paxton questioned Talarico's absence from the campaign trail and challenged his explanation that he was recovering from the flu. He posted a faux "Wanted" poster on his X account, accusing Talarico of having "a full-blown mental Tala-freak-out on the national stage."
Paxton also demanded a doctor's note, a dated video of Talarico and information about his return flight from New York, according to USA Today.
More Paxton audio
Meanwhile, several news outlets continue to publish recordings of Paxton discussing his campaign and federal policy at private events. The latest recording, obtained by The Texas Tribune, features Paxton discussing potential federal spending cuts and ways to reduce the national deficit.
At a private fundraiser with Washington lobbyists last month, Paxton said he would make “some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending – you’re gonna have to do it. Or there is no solution. That’s just the reality. We have to suck it up.”
Paxton also said spending has been a problem for presidential administrations from both parties.
“We’ve been spending like crazy and no one seems to care,” Paxton said. “It’s gonna bankrupt us. It’s just a matter of time.”
Paxton said he would protect Social Security and cited efforts to combat fraud as one way to reduce the deficit. However, The Texas Tribune reported that he did not specify which benefit programs he would target for spending cuts.
“The fake news keeps spinning the same cherry-picked audio to mislead Texans and take my words out of context,” Paxton added.
Previously, Axios obtained a recording of Paxton where he described the war in Iran and rising gasoline and diesel prices as challenges for his campaign.
Politico also received a recording of Paxton speaking to a Washington lobbying firm where he said, "I've never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it's all coming – you know – from D.C. I don't control message or what we're doing."
Despite the recent decline in his market price, Talarico remains the favorite to win Texas' Senate race. Kalshi traders currently give the Democrat a 63% chance of winning, compared with Paxton's 37%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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