With the November midterms swiftly approaching, much of the country is awaiting Texas’s Democratic Senate nomination, which will likely be decided after today’s primary vote.
As Democrats look to flip the Lone Star State, today’s results will have major implications. Currently, Congressman James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett are viewed as frontrunners on Kalshi.
Keep in mind: 33 U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs this year. There will also be two additional openings from special elections. Of those upcoming races, 22 seats are presently occupied by the GOP.
Let’s survey the candidates, their credentials and any notable trading action.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Texas Democratic Senate nomination
Congressman Talarico is Kalshi’s current market favorite. Over the weekend, Talarico was priced at 68¢ to win the Democratic primary in Texas. However, that number has since risen to 86%.
Behind him, Congresswoman Crockett’s chances of earning the nomination are priced at 15%.
The market has attracted a volume of approximately $4.8 million at this time.
Talarico and Crockett
Talarico and Crockett have been considered the likely victors for some time. Late in 2025, Crockett was priced as high as 50¢. But Talarico surged ahead on December 9 and has not looked back since.
Crockett received a recent endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris, but it remains to be seen what sway that will have over Democratic voters in Texas.
Margin of Victory
Kalshi’s traders are also pricing in the margin of victory for today’s race. They currently have “Talarico by 9-12%” as the top option, at 19¢. “Talarico by 12-15%” is close behind at 17¢.
Kalshi also offers a market for which specific counties will be won by Talarico. Right now, Talarico shows a probability above 90% to win each of El Paso (96¢), Travis (96¢), Bexar (95¢), and Hidalgo (92¢) counties.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Who will win Texas’s Democratic Senate nomination?
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.