The race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Rep. James Talarico for Texas' U.S. Senate seat remains extremely close, both in the polls and on Kalshi.
The Texas Senate winner market shows Paxton and Talarico are tied at 50% each.
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What do the polls say?
The polls show things are also close between Paxton and Talarico.
The Houston Chronicle’s tracker of major Texas Senate polls also shows a tight race, with Paxton averaging 47% support and Talarico at 46%.
Campaign controversies
Talarico is capitalizing on Paxton’s spotty record, not just as Texas Attorney General but also with stories from his personal life.
A Talarico campaign ad that gained widespread attention revisited a 2012 incident in which security cameras recorded Paxton taking another attorney's Montblanc pen, reportedly worth about $1,000.
The New York Times’ Lauren McGaughy wrote a deep dive on the incident that happened at the Collin County courthouse in Texas while Paxton served as a member of the Texas House of Representatives.
Paxton was walking through a security checkpoint when he spotted the Montblanc pen in a dish by the metal detector. The pen belonged to Joe Joplin, who appeared in the Talarico ad and endorsed the Democratic Senate candidate.
A courthouse security camera recorded the moment when Paxton pocketed the pricey pen. Collin County sheriff’s deputies approached Paxton about the pen, and he returned it without further incident. The ad also showed footage from the security camera.
Paxton's past legal and political controversies have also resurfaced during the campaign, including his felony securities fraud indictment and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, although he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.
Paxton has also drawn attention for some of his responses to voters on the campaign trail. The San Antonio Current reported that a clip of Paxton was posted on X in which he was asked about the recent ban on THC across Texas.
Paxton responded, “Um, I don’t know the details of it, but let’s talk about it later,” before stepping away from the camera.
Even areas of Paxton’s personal life seem to be affecting his campaign chances. The San Antonio Current also reported that another viral video surfaced online of Paxton boarding a flight to Reykjavik, Iceland, with Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, whom other news outlets have identified as having had an extramarital relationship with Paxton.
Talarico has faced scrutiny over his own voter registration after criticizing Paxton's residency situation. The Texas Tribune and ProPublica reported that Talarico continued using his parents' address on his voter registration after purchasing his own home in 2022. The law in Texas requires voters to register with the address of their current residence.
“He purchased a home in June 2022 but did not change his voter registration address until September 2024, the news organizations’ review of Travis County records shows,” the story reported. “The new address is redacted, but Talarico’s campaign previously told the newsrooms that he currently lives and is registered to vote at the north Austin home he owns.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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