Heading into tomorrow’s runoff election, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is the clear favorite on Kalshi’s market for the Texas Republican Senate nomination.
Paxton’s chances of winning are now priced at 96%, compared to Cornyn at 4%.
Odds shifted decisively in Paxton’s favor following President Donald Trump’s official endorsement last week.
The Texas Tribune reported that Trump made his endorsement on Truth Social, calling Paxton "a true MAGA warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate."
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Texas Senate
No matter who becomes the Republican candidate, the Kalshi market for the Texas Senate race shows the Republican party favored against Democratic State Rep. James Talarico, but not by much. The Republican candidate shows a price of 54%, followed by Talarico at 46%.
What do the polls say?
The Kalshi market isn't the only place where Paxton is dominating the Texas Senate GOP runoff. The most recent poll from SoCal Strategies shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a margin of 21 points.
Trump-endorsed candidates
Texas isn't the only place where Trump-endorsed candidates picked up momentum. USA Today reported that Trump-backed candidates won major primaries across six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. In Georgia and Kentucky specifically, Trump-backed candidates helped oust four incumbent GOP U.S. House members.
The takeaway:
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