No. 1 Texas brings a 4-0 record into the 122nd Red River Rivalry, and Kalshi’s market isn’t forecasting a close game. The Longhorns are priced at 74% to win over an Oklahoma team that arrives at 2-2 for a Cotton Bowl showdown on Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is unranked after a 17-10 loss to Michigan and a 14-6 win over New Mexico, followed by a 41-13 loss at Georgia on Sept. 26 and a bye last week. Texas won last year's meeting 23-6, and Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer threw three interceptions in that game.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA.
Game snapshot
Matchup: Texas vs. Oklahoma
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Watch: ABC
Kalshi traders' current number: 74% Texas / 26% Oklahoma
Texas vs. Oklahoma, Saturday, October 10, 2026
Traders have Texas at 74% and Oklahoma at 26% on a market with $686,061 in volume. The same market has Texas at 50% to score more than 23.5 points and Oklahoma at 48% to score more than 15.5. Texas has beaten Texas State 59-7 and rallied to beat Tennessee this season.
According to Kalshi's college football power rankings, Texas enters as the No. 5 team nationally while Oklahoma ranks 29th.
Texas is hopeful that running back Hollywood Smothers and tight end Nick Townsend can return, per Field Level Media. Smothers has 198 yards and two touchdowns this season and was hurt before the Tennessee game, and Townsend was hurt in the Week 2 game against Ohio State.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said Mateer remains the starting quarterback, per A to Z Sports. Venables also addressed instability on the offensive line this week, and he is 1-3 against Texas.
Texas beat No. 14 Tennessee 20-17 on Sept. 26, and quarterback Arch Manning completed 14 of 19 passes for 201 yards with one interception while the Longhorns recorded 10 sacks and held the Volunteers to 221 total yards.
Margin of Victory
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have Texas at 50% to win by more than 7.5 points.
Point Total
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game at 50% to finish over 39.5 total points.
College Football Playoff National Championship
Team | Chance to win title |
|---|---|
Texas | 13% |
Oklahoma | <1% |
SEC Championship
Team | Chance to win SEC |
|---|---|
Texas | 23% |
Oklahoma | <1% |
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
When is Texas vs. Oklahoma? Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? The Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
How can I watch? The game airs on ABC.
What is Kalshi traders' current number? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have Texas at 74% and Oklahoma at 26%.
Kalshi traders have Texas at 74% and Oklahoma at 26% for a Red River Rivalry game between the top-ranked Longhorns and an unranked Oklahoma team coming off a bye.
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