Last month, our markets were sounding the alarm as the chances of a government shutdown continued their upward trend.
Of course, this is not uncommon, since media hype often goes into overdrive as a deadline approaches. But this year, savvy traders understood that the threat of a shutdown was real.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.
Now, the question is no longer if it will happen, but how long it will last.
According to NBC News, the longest shutdown in history was during Trump’s first term in 2018, which lasted 34 days. But most have been far shorter: the average is 8 days, the median is 4, and the most common length is just 1.
However, this time, our traders are predicting the trouble will drag on longer than normal.
Why?
As Kalshi’s Jaron Zhou points out, one of the main factors behind the Democrats’ willingness to force a shutdown is the fact that they received so much blowback from their base last March after cutting a deal.
That helps explain why our shutdown forecast has been trending upwards, and traders are predicting it will be nearly two weeks before a deal is reached.
But instead of focusing solely on our trader consensus, we decided to reach out to some veteran Kalshi traders to get their takes on the shutdown, and what they think (not trading advice) is in store over the coming days and weeks (and maybe months).
🚗 Zubbybadger — Buy me a car!
I think it's a great market, and I think the market odds are totally insane. I'm not sure that the people trading on this lasting a long time have any idea what that would mean, and I look forward to taking their money and buying a car with it.
Thirty-six days?! Like, what?!
📊 Iabvek — Leaning short
I don't have a big position yet, but I lean fairly strongly toward a short shutdown. It seemed like it was very difficult to get the marginal Democrats to be willing to shut down, despite no attempts at negotiation from the GOP, polling showing the GOP would be blamed, and intense desire from the base to ‘fight back.’
As the shutdown drags on, I don't think any of those things will hold: there will be some token negotiations with the GOP, people will blame the Democrats as they continually vote down clean CRs, and the intense anger from the base will be sated and move toward concern about Trump wrecking the government during the shutdown.
📉 Reg Monkey — Short and Squishy
I think that this shutdown will be short. I do not think keeping the government shutdown for subsidies for the ACA makes a ton of sense. Open enrollment is November 1, and insurers need more time than these to incorporate that into their pricing.
Do long-shutdown people think Democrats will hold the government shut down for subsidies to be renewed in 2027? The only reason this might change is if Republicans start taking a lot of blame here. But then that opens a new off-ramp.
All the Dem justification seems kind of squishy to me, and the fact that no one has ardent policy disputes makes me think this will end after the blame game is settled one way or another. I’ve basically loaded up my 10+ shutdown N, so this is fine.
I think I’m the only person who’s explicitly argued ACA subsidies for a long shutdown makes no sense, too.
⏳ LanceUpper — Still gaming it out
I haven't entered into a trade for that market; I’m waiting and seeing.
But to keep it short: the parties are not far apart, and the Democrats’ negotiating position is generally weak and dependent on the public continuing to buy them as the heroes of the story. It’s unclear that will land with how nationalized and partisan it will get. It probably looks like a Trump opinion poll and wouldn’t be enough to budge the Republicans.
I would think the shutdown will be shorter rather than longer, but the possibility of surprise breakthroughs that materialize from nowhere to end the logjam will always be lurking. Still gaming it out.
👠 Gaeten Dugas — ‘Showgirls’ over shutdowns
I’ve decided not to trade the shutdown duration market. To do well there, you have to follow and interpret the news constantly, sometimes for weeks. I’d rather stick to markets that demand less ongoing attention, but they can be very profitable for those willing to dedicate the time.
Plus, it just coincides with the release of Taylor Swift's new album. For me, the Taylor markets take almost no effort and are near guaranteed wins.
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The opinions and perspectives in this article belong solely to the author, who is writing under a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. The quotes were taken from Kalshi users writing under various aliases and do not represent the views of Kalshi Inc. or its affiliates. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.