Oscar odds: The Odyssey leads Best Picture, Best Director, and more

Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey isn't just winning over critics. The film also topped the weekend box office and has emerged as the favorite across several Kalshi Oscar markets.

The Odyssey leads the Best Picture winner market on Kalshi, priced at 50%, followed by Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Three at 14% and Alejandro G. Iñárrit's Digger at 8%.

Traders have also put The Odyssey at the top of the Best Picture Oscar nomination market at 99%, followed by Project Hail Mary at 91%, and Dune: Part Three at 84%.

Variety’s Clayton Davis notes that the Academy seems to have a certain fondness for “the sword-and-sandal epic,” citing Oscar-winning hits such as Gladiator, Ben-Hur, Spartacus, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

“It pairs one of Hollywood’s most ambitious filmmakers with source material that has shaped Western storytelling for nearly three millennia, sprinkled with an ensemble stacked with some of the biggest stars on the planet and a technical approach designed to make the theatrical experience itself part of the conversation; you have to recognize the birth of a viable Oscar contender,” Davis wrote.

The Adapted Screenplay nomination market shows Nolan in the lead at 87%, followed by Olivia Wilde's The Invite at 81%, and Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi's The Black Ball at 76%.

Matt Zoller Seitz of RogerEbert.com praised Nolan’s vision of The Odyssey, noting that it weaves a tale that’s about more than just an epic journey and the mythical monsters who get in the way of the final destination.

“Nolan, who adapted the script, takes liberties, but they’re in the name of simultaneously expanding and uniting various accounts of Odysseus’ deeds in service of a larger, more elusive goal,” Seitz wrote.

The Odyssey has also taken the lead in the market for the Best Original Score nomination at 88%.

Ludwig Göransson, the Swedish composer for The Odyssey, already has three Oscars for his work on Sinners, Oppenheimer, and Black Panther.

Digger leads the nomination market for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at 68%, with The Odyssey close behind at 66%.

Traders expect Hoyte van Hoytema to pick up a nomination for Best Cinematography for his work on The Odyssey. It's priced at 94%, ahead of Dune: Part Three at 76%, and Digger at 64%.

The New York Times’ Melena Ryzik reported that van Hoytema used “cumbersome IMAX cameras” to shoot The Odyssey, a challenging feat since the film features scenes in deserts and on oceans that could only be shot “in three-minute bursts.”

The Odyssey is also leading the market for a nomination for Best Achievement in Casting, a category that debuted at the 2026 Oscars. The Odyssey is priced at 87%, ahead of The Black Ball at 74%, and Digger at 63%.

Some of the casting choices sparked controversy among certain cultural critics of the film, who criticized the movie over the casting of Lupita Nyong'o and Elliot Page.

Forbes' Erik Kain pushed back on those critics for "placing politics above art."

“A different version of The Odyssey could have been cast with all Greek or Greek-looking actors and would have been totally valid as a creative choice as well,” Kain said. “I wouldn’t call that film racist any more than I would call Nolan’s film ‘woke.’ These are two different creative visions.”

The Odyssey topped the weekend box office and leads across multiple Oscar markets on Kalshi, with traders expecting it to remain a major contender when nominations are announced.

Kalshi markets now predict

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Universal Pictures

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}