
There's a better chance the Trump admin kills Elmo (40%) than releases the Epstein files (23%).
Last week, social media erupted with outrage over the actions of the Trump administration, just like it does every week.
But what made last week different was the fact that the outrage was mainly coming from Trump supporters angered by the Justice Department's failure to release the so-called "Epstein Files."
Because the leader cannot be wrong, most of the outrage was initially directed at Attorney General Pam Bondi. But the President's public attempts to move on from the issue have worked about as well as pouring water on a grease fire, and now Trump himself is catching flak.
Epstein Files
As the outrage continues to build, the odds of Bondi getting the boot or resigning from the DOJ have climbed to 26%. Odds of the Epstein Files being released have also risen to 23%.
Be sure to check back soon for new markets on this topic.
Executing Elmo?
You know what I would do if people were accusing me of covering up the crimes of a billionaire sex criminal? I'd straight-up murder Big Bird.
Great minds must think alike, because last week, President Trump threatened to pull his support for any Republican senators who refused to vote for a proposed budget rescission bill that cuts funding for PBS and NPR.

As you'd expect, supporters of public broadcasting are angry about the cuts, and have taken to social media to voice their displeasure.

It turns out Elmo's account was hacked, probably by Oscar the Grouch.
While odds of the rescission bill passing are currently at 67%, the chances of PBS and NPR being defunded this year are only at 40%, which may suggest moderate Republicans are working to cut a deal.
Or it could just be a market discrepancy, and now is your chance to cash in on the death of Daniel Tiger, Mr. Snuffleupagus, and Kai Ryssdal, like the heartless monster you are.
The Espy Awards

"...that is something that no one can ever take away from you... unless..."
Last but not least, I wanted to write about tomorrow's Baseball All-Star Game and tonight's Home Run contest. But I'm not allowed to use player names, which sort of defeats the purpose of discussing a game devoted to the best players.
So instead, I'm going to write about the 2025 ESPY awards, because no one gives a damn if I write about those.
We have lots of markets on Wednesday's ceremony, including a mention market on what host Gillis will say. So between our markets and Gillis' monologue, it might actually be bearable to watch.
📈 Market roundup
Key events this week
General
🚢 Tariffs
🗓️ Monday
🗓️ Tuesday
🗓️ Wednesday
🗓️ Thursday
⛳ The Open Championship (Thursday–Sunday)
🗓️ Friday
🗓️ Saturday
🇯🇵 Japan Elections (Upper House - TBD)
🚨 New & notable
New markets you might have missed.
🎲 Terry's trades...
Random markets Terry would love to trade if he didn't work here.
🗞️ Kalshi in the news
"Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now place the odds of a U.S. recession this year at 21%, up slightly from 19% earlier Tuesday. That figure is still near the lowest level of the year, which was 17% on Jan. 17."
"Republicans’ odds were 83%, according to the Kalshi market, as of Feb. 21."
"As MAGA hardliners' frustration with the Trump administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation continues to mount, online [traders] are rushing to the open market to predict when the first big domino will fall."
📣 New Kalshi Ad: Here’s to the Underdogs
Kalshi's first AI-made commercial racked up over 100 million views. Now, we're back with round two, which is called Here’s to the Underdogs.
The video was made in just one week at 1% the cost of a typical ad, and it's already live across social platforms and set to air on TV.
I think it’s even better than the first. Of course, I get paid to say that, so check it out and decide if I'm lying.
My only quibble is that Saint Peter would have lost a lot of money trading the other way, but I digress.
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