Is Elon baking up something special for Trump?
If you're a fan of watching the most powerful men in the world snipe at each other like a couple of Bravo reality-show hags, I've got some good news for you!
The Trump-Musk feud is back on (check out the related markets)!
Last night, as Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (check out our BBB markets) was poised for a vote in the Senate, Musk once again began attacking the legislation on X, and threatened to start a new political party (the "America Party") if it passed. Well, earlier today, it did.
Will he follow through? Our traders currently give it a 38% chance.
Traders also see a 30% chance that Musk will lose his security clearance, an 87% chance the reconciliation bill will become law before August, and a 62% chance Trump will punish SpaceX by canceling contracts before July of next year.
It's all very sophisticated.
But the Musk-Trump feud isn't the only big news this week. From Wimbledon to hot dogs to Kalshi's $2 billion valuation, here's a look at the week ahead.
📈 Market roundup
Key events this week
General
🎾 Wimbledon
⚽ US Pro-Soccer
🗓️ Tuesday
🗓️ Wednesday
🗓️ Thursday
🗓️ Friday
🗓️ Saturday
🗓️ Sunday
🚨 New & notable
New markets you might have missed.
🎲 Terry's trades
Random markets I'd love to trade if I didn't work here.
🗞️ Kalshi in the news
"The [funding] round values Kalshi at $2 billion, cementing its status as a “unicorn,” with a valuation in the billions."
"Kalshi — the first legal election betting platform in the US in over a century — gives voters more transparency and makes them feel more involved in the process, Mansour argues, because it lets them put their money where their mouths are."
"It isn’t just polls showing Mamdani might win: Prediction markets like Kalshi... show him up significantly over Cuomo."
📣 Kalshi announcements
Yeah, what he said!
I've got some big news, but you have to promise not to tell my ex-wife.
What does that mean?
Hopefully it means I won’t have to keep writing newsletters until I die.
But more importantly, it means Kalshi has officially transformed prediction markets and event contracts from a fringe idea into a legal, burgeoning asset class. Click here to read all the details.
Thanks to all of you who trade, read, and occasionally write me angry emails about how I shouldn’t make fun of Matt Gaetz...
My bad.
We couldn’t have done it without you!
Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.