The week ahead: Senate seats, Silicon Valley, and Saturday football

Good morning traders,

We hope that your weekend was enjoyable, restful, and that you're prepared for the week ahead, because it's going to be a big one.

On Tuesday the South Carolina GOP Senate runoff will take place between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman. On Wednesday, NVIDIA reports highly anticipated earnings results for Q2. And College Football Week 0 kicks off this Saturday with some big matchups.

Let’s dive in.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA.}

A special GOP primary runoff between Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman for U.S. senate is being held in South Carolina on Tuesday to determine who will replace Sen. Lindsey Graham, who passed away earlier this year, as the GOP nominee.

After Sen Graham’s passing, his sister Darline Graham was selected to serve out the remainder of his term ending in January 2027. Weeks after being appointed, Sen. Graham announced she would be running for the full senate term and was promptly endorsed by Donald Trump.

Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman received 32.7% and 24.6% of the vote respectively in the initial primary and will now go head to head in a runoff. During last week’s debate, Norman attacked Graham's lack of experience, and Graham highlighted Norman's holdout in voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year, until being called by President Trump.

Though both Sen. Graham and Rep. Norman spent time speaking to each other's weaknesses, most of the debate focused on attacks towards Democrats. The main topics of debate were Republicans who didn't vote along party lines, nicknamed "RINO" or 'Republican In Name Only', and fears over growing support towards Democratic Socialists.

Sen. Darline Graham's chance of winning is currently priced at 68%. But whoever wins will face Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee. Though traders have her well behind either of the potential Republican candidates, the pediatrician's campaign based on gun control, climate change, and healthcare reform saw her win the favor of many South Carolinians. 

While the chart clearly gives the Republican candidate the edge, it’s worth highlighting that anything can happen in an election, as was demonstrated by the recent victory of a candidate with a 5% probability to win in the Wisconsin Democratic Primary, an occurrence that should happen 1 in 20 times. 

Moving on from the world of politics, NVIDIA is due to report Q2 earnings this Wednesday after market close.

We probably don't need to explain why this is important, but NVIDIA earnings essentially act as a quarterly gauge for whether the AI economy is continuing to grow, and many institutional and retail traders hold their breath until the numbers come out. While metrics like revenue and capex matter a lot for companies, especially those with market caps of $5.25 trillion doing hundreds of billions in yearly revenue, our traders are concerned with a different market.

What NVIDIA will say during their next earnings call has become a staple for the tech behemoth's reports. While there are standard financial terms that usually appear, recent news regarding NVIDIA's chips entering China and NVIDIA self-financing its own AI buildout have seen some changes take place in the markets.

NVIDIA's H200 chips were allowed into mainland China in order to spur AI development in the country, though the Chinese government is only permitting certain companies to purchase the U.S. licensed chips in order to protect domestic Chinese chipmakers. Notably, the H200 chips are two generations behind the most advanced NVIDIA chips that are governed by U.S. export control.

In addition to chips being allowed in China, NVIDIA announced partnerships with various private credit, private equity, and investment banks to push $500 billion towards AI infrastructure before guaranteeing up to $105 billion towards OpenAI’s new Ohio data center project.

These are just two developments for the company within the past month, so whether or not they will be the topics of discussion on the earnings call is fair game, but if they aren't there's plenty of other mentions to trade on NVIDIA's earnings call.

If politics and quarterly earnings reports aren’t your thing, there’s a good chance that College Football is. Fortunately, Week 0 of the 2026 College Football Season starts this weekend.

The first game of the season kicks off on Saturday with North Carolina taking on TCU. Traders currently price TCU as a strong favorite over North Carolina. Interestingly, this game won't be taking place at either team's home stadium, and instead will be played in Dublin, Ireland.

Bill Belichick is starting his second season as North Carolina's head coach and, after debuting with a 4-8 record last year, is looking to re-establish his coaching prowess. TCU, on the other hand, is coming off a 9-4 season that saw the team end up in the middle of the Big 12 conference, far from the undefeated regular season they had in 2022.

While another game, NC State and Virginia, was to originally be played in Brazil, those plans fell apart, and the teams will now face off in Charlottesville. Traders price Virginia as the early favorite.

Virginia is playing with an exceptionally old offensive line, with most players in their 5th, 6th, or 7th year. This means that the run game could look more favorable to the coaching staff, especially given the team's record 2,502 rushing yards last season, the most in over 20 years for the program. 

North Carolina State is starting its 14th year with Dave Doeren as head coach. While he has been able to consistently make bowl games, the program has yet to recapture the heights it reached when Philip Rivers was under center. While expectations for the team's season are high, their starting matchup looks like it might be a tough one.

No matter where your interests lie, this week is jam packed with events that you can trade on Kalshi. We hope it's a good one.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA.}