The week ahead: trade talks, tee times, and a huge papal payday

This week, as Trump and China spar over tariffs and trade policy, all eyes are on the April CPI report for signs of rising inflation. In sports, pro hockey and basketball playoffs are in full swing, while the PGA Championship and FA Cup get underway. In music, Morgan Wallen’s highly anticipated new album drops, and the Eurovision Grand Final takes place in Basel, Switzerland. Kalshi markets let you trade on all this and more in the week ahead.

But first...

In high school, I was forced to sit through a religious retreat where a Catholic priest did an interpretive dance to the song Mr. Bojangles. This disturbing memory is not something I normally like to talk about, but I’m sharing it now because that same priest turned out to be the new pope’s former roommate!

Granted, my “new pope” story isn’t very impressive. So here’s a much better one!

Last Thursday, Kalshi user Noland turned $526 into $52,641 by predicting that Cardinal Robert Prevost would be the next pope, even though the market gave him just a 1 percent chance.

A transactional lawyer based in the Midwest/South, Noland has been trading for about five years, including four on Kalshi. That experience led him to fade the favorites and load up on longshots.

“I didn’t even think Prevost was especially likely to win,” Noland said. “I just felt that all the longshots were undervalued. It’s really hard to get two-thirds of cardinals to agree on anything, especially something as important as the pope.”

Although this bet paid off in a big way, Noland says he's had bigger paydays, along with some heavy losses.

“I have had some big losses, and it always shakes you a bit, but the more you focus on process and diligence, the easier it is to digest,” he said.

He also said that "gut instinct" often leads traders astray, which is why you should "assume that your first instinct on a trade is probably a negative expected value."

Last but not least, Noland also believes that participating in prediction markets on important societal issues is “a great service to the world.”

“You can't solve all the world's problems, but if you can provide a bit of information that makes things a little more accurate,” Noland said, “that’s better than the alternative. And the refusal to do so is arguably ‘burying your talents,’ for those who understand the reference.”

It's that time of year when every possession feels like life or death, and fans collectively forget how to breathe. Basketball is a rollercoaster: one night it's a 40-point blowout, the next it's a buzzer-beater followed by 12 hours of podcast overreactions. Hockey is also running (or skating) at full chaos speed, with overtime thrillers, surprise goalie takeovers, and at least one no-name turning into a legend. Markets are moving with every injury update, coaching gamble, and “clutch or cursed?” debate. Strap in. It's unpredictable, a little unhinged, and absolutely electric.

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Bitcoin is back in the headlines, pushing toward recent highs as ETF inflows, inflation fears, and global uncertainty reignite market momentum. Volatility is back too, and traders are watching closely for signs of a real breakout or just another head-fake. Coinbase volume is ticking up, miners are rallying, and altcoins are starting to stir. Crypto markets are heating up fast. The question now is whether this rally has real legs or fizzles into another false start. Keep an eye on macro shifts, Fed signals, and weekend price action.

🟢 Related markets:

Valhalla is prepped, the grass is cut, and the stakes are high. The PGA Championship tees off Thursday, and things are already getting spicy. Scottie Scheffler’s on a heater and now playing with full-on dad strength. Rory is juggling a major title chase and a divorce. Rahm is still adjusting to LIV life. And yes, Tiger is in the field, which means everyone is watching — even your uncle who hasn’t played golf since 2006. Expect leaderboard chaos, emotional cut-line markets, and the annual “will there be a playoff?” debate by Sunday. Forecast: wind, drama, and maybe a thrown club or two.

— The New York Post

— The New York Times

— Cointelegraph

— Competitive Enterprise Institute

— CNBC

⚖️ Legal election trading is here to stay (thanks to Kalshi)

After years of legal battles and regulatory uncertainty, the CFTC has voluntarily dismissed its legal appeal against Kalshi. The dismissal solidifies what Kalshi has fought for all along: a legal way for Americans to trade on the outcomes of elections.

"Prediction markets have been banned, censored, limited, and pushed out for decades," said Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour. "This win solidifies their right to exist and thrive."

This is obviously a major victory for Kalshi. But it’s also a watershed moment for the prediction market industry. Election trading is now not only legal, but firmly embedded in U.S. financial law. In other words, election trading is here to stay, and Kalshi remains committed to offering traders a legal, regulated platform to trade on the events that matter most to them.

🚀 Stay ahead of the news — trade real-world events at Kalshi.com.

Follow Shannon Magiera on X: @weathershanFollow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.