The week ahead: US Open finals, the Fed, and Week 1 football

Whether you spent your weekend watching Week 1 of college football, the US Open, or doing a fantasy football draft before the first game of the regular season, we hope you had as much fun as we did.

Looking at the week ahead, we’re gonna dive into the first week of pro football and continue to talk about the action at the US Open and its upcoming finals. We’ll also discuss how markets concerning the Fed decision changed after the jobs report and what’s in store for this Friday’s inflation report.

So without further ado, let’s get into it.

(Be sure to visit our Pro Football Hub and read our 2026 Pro Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.}

Play in the U.S. Open continued over the weekend shaping the field for what traders believe will be two exciting championship matches. The Americans had a rough start on Saturday with Taylor Fritz, Madison Keys, and Amanda Anisimova all being eliminated. On Sunday, however, Frances Tiafoe knocked out 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev, who had beaten him in six of their seven previous matches. Now, Tiafoe faces Alex Michelsen, who is yet to lose a set.

In another men’s quarterfinal match, Ben Shelton will take on Carlos Alcaraz after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas. Returning after nearly five months of no play with a wrist injury, Alcaraz has been performing strongly and traders have him leading in the odds of being the US Open Men’s Singles Winner. 

On the women’s side of the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka continued to play well, beating Taylor Townsend and earning her a spot in the quarterfinal vs Czech Linda Noskova. Despite being the frontrunner in our US Open Women’s Singles Winner market, Sabalenka is not being given as strong a lead as the frontrunner on the men’s side.

Interestingly, the tournament overall is shaping up to be very American. Five American men reached the fourth round, the highest number since 1995, guaranteeing at least one American semifinalist. However, traders are unsure whether it will be enough for the US to crown its first Men’s Grand Slam singles champion since 2003.

On the women’s side an American semifinalist is guaranteed as well, which creates the possibility of having American champions on both sides of the tournament. Whether that will happen though, we have to wait and see.

This Wednesday marks the opening game of the 2026 pro football season with New England taking on Seattle at Lumen Field. Despite the game still being a couple of days away, excited traders have already begun making their moves in the New England vs Seattle market.

The 2025-2026 championship game rematch currently sees the defending champs Seattle as favorites according to traders. Despite championship MVP Kenneth Walker III leaving the team, alongside Riq Woolen and Boye Mafe, Seattle is still looking strong, but perhaps less strong than the performance they put on in February. 

During the big game, Seattle’s defense was able to stop New England from scoring for three quarters, sack Drake Maye six times, and force three turnovers. Coincidental or not, the restructuring New England did during the offseason seems to address the weaknesses that were exposed during the final game.

New England traded for A.J. Brown, signed fellow receiver Romeo Doubs and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, and then drafted Caleb Lomu in the first round, a pretty strong signal of where the team thought they were lacking. While most of the championship unit that formed Seattle's defense is still intact, the opening game will be one to watch.

Another game worth watching next week is between Denver and Kansas City. After going 6-11 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, Kansas City are vying for the AFC West. Star QB Patrick Mahomes was fully cleared for training camp after tearing his ACL and LCL last season against Los Angeles.

Whether Mahomes will have his agility and skill following the knee surgery will be something to watch, though he isn’t the only QB coming back from an injury. Denver QB Bo Nix is returning from an ankle injury sustained against Buffalo in the playoffs last year, so his ability to move outside the pocket is also something to pay attention to.

Importantly, Nix will have Jaylen Waddle as a target making the Denver offense even more lethal, but Kansas City’s addition of Kenneth Walker III makes the Walker + Kelce + Mahomes combination a threat to be reckoned with. Traders are currently favoring Kansas City, but as any football fan knows, anything could happen. So we’ll just have to wait and see.

For the latest market-based predictions, visit Kalshi’s Pro Football Hub and 2026 Power Rankings.

Last Friday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2026 jobs report which came in much stronger than expected. The headline numbers were the addition of 162,000 nonfarm jobs and 4.1% unemployment, where predictions were around 50,000 - 60,000 jobs. Naturally, the markets concerning the Fed and the Fed decision in September reacted accordingly.

Employment numbers coming in hot are not only important on their own, but they raise the stakes for the August CPI Report that will be released this Friday. Though the Fed does prefer the PCE price index (another economic metric you can research if you’re bored), the CPI is more often read because it gauges where inflation is heading. 

If Friday’s CPI is also hotter than expected, the strong labor market and stubborn inflation would be good reasons for the Fed to consider raising rates during the September 15-16 meeting. If the CPI comes in cooler, the picture gets more complicated with increasing job numbers and inflation. The job report showed that the economy is strong, but the CPI will indicate whether that is an inflation problem.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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