What are Tom Cruise's odds of receiving a Best Actor Oscar nomination for Digger?

Kalshi traders have Tom Cruise at 40% to receive a Best Actor nomination for his performance in Digger, down from higher marks before the film's mixed critical reception.

How did Digger perform with critics?

Digger received a 50% score on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating mixed critical reception. Critics praised Cruise's committed performance but were more divided on the film itself.

Who is the current frontrunner to win the Best Actor Oscar?

Kalshi traders have John Malkovich leading at 37%, followed by Matt Damon at 26% and Andrew Scott at 22%.

Who are the locks for Best Actor nominations?

Kalshi traders have Malkovich (94%), Damon (93%), and Scott (86%) as the three most likely nominees.

Who else is competing with Tom Cruise for the fifth Best Actor nomination slot?

Robert Pattinson (60%) and Ryan Gosling (54%) are both ahead of Cruise (40%), with Anthony Ippolito (49%) also leading him in the nominations market.

Tom Cruise's Oscar odds slip as Digger lands at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes

Tom Cruise’s latest movie Digger, directed by Mexican filmmaker Alejandro González Iñárritu, was supposed to be a vehicle for the veteran actor to finally win an Oscar.

But after Digger debuted to a 50% Rotten Tomatoes score, indicating mixed critical reception, Cruise's odds for being one of the five performances nominated for Best Actor are currently trading at 40%, with a downward trajectory since mid-September.

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‘Digger’ critical reception

Digger is Cruise’s first non-franchise movie in years, and after four previous Oscar nominations (including one as Top Gun: Maverick producer), critics and traders alike aren’t sure if he’ll receive a fifth nomination this year for the dark comedy satire.

Matt Singer at ScreenCrush likened the latest Cruise performance to one of his earlier roles. “It’s mostly a very external (if totally committed) performance: The garish clothes, the heavy Southern accent, the wild gray hairdo. It’s cut from the same cloth as his loathsome Hollywood mogul in Tropic Thunder.”

Variety’s Owen Gleiberman made the same comparison and called Cruise’s central performance “well-played and skillfully etched” while criticizing the filmmaking and story.

Vulture’s Bilge Ebiri offered a more balanced review of the overall project, and praised Cruise’s commitment to the role. “His caricature of a face, encrusted with prosthetic wrinkles and loose strands of thinning hair, is one thing, but the physicality is what really impresses, almost as though he’s still doing one of those Mission: Impossible stunts,” Ebiri wrote. “Transforming his inner imperturbability into breathless forward motion, Digger moves with hunched, waddling determination — part George W. Bush, part Yosemite Sam, all wombat. We can’t take our eyes off him, but we never forget this is Tom Cruise doing a part.”

The current Best Actor race

Kalshi traders believe Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Pressure) are locks for nominations. Damon’s odds are 93%, Malkovich’s 94%, and Scott’s 86% in the nominations market. Scott is currently listed in the market for his film Pressure, but he is also receiving significant acclaim for his lead performance in Elsinore.

In the Kalshi Best Actor Winner market, Malkovich has the current edge at 37%, over Damon at 26% and Scott at 22%.

All three of these actors would be competing for their first Acting Oscar trophy. Malkovich has two Best Supporting Actor nominations over his career. Damon has been nominated four times in total, winning once for Best Original Screenplay for Good Will Hunting. Scott has never been nominated for an Academy Award.

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Behind the frontrunners but still ahead of Cruise in the Kalshi nominee prediction market are Robert Pattinson’s emulation of journalist Chris Hansen in the recently released Primetime and Ryan Gosling’s scientist role in Project Hail Mary. Pattinson leads Gosling 60% to 54%, a gap that has widened considerably in recent weeks. Both films received critical acclaim for both the filmmaking and their respective performances.

Ahead of Cruise at 40% is Anthony Ippolito at 49% for his portrayal of Sylvester Stallone in the Rocky making-of biopic I Played Rocky. The film had on-the-ground buzz at Toronto International Film Festival, but won't hit theaters for the general public until November.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict

Follow Radhika Menon on Instagram: @menonrad
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