Despite term limits, traders price Trump ahead of Harris in 2028

Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris may be gearing up for 2028. According to The Daily Beast, Harris is “actively setting the stage for another run at the White House,” and recently gave a speech chastising both parties for failing “to hold the public’s trust.”

However, based on Kalshi’s 2028 presidential markets, Harris may have her work cut out for her. Traders currently price her chances of winning the White House at just 4%. And to add insult to injury, President Donald Trump’s odds of winning are at 5%, slightly higher than Harris, despite the fact that he is constitutionally barred from running for a third term.

While both Trump and Harris are priced in the single digits, Vice President J.D. Vance is currently the favorite to win the presidency in 2028 and is priced at 30%.

Despite traders’ views, some polls show Harris may have a better chance of becoming the Democratic candidate in 2028. Newsweek reported that Big Data Poll found Harris has the support of 31.1 percent of those surveyed, ahead of both California Governor Newsom (20.3%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%). 

However, Kalshi traders are far less optimistic.

Currently, Harris’ chances are priced at just 6%, well behind Newsom, who is trading at 35%. She also trails Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is priced at 10%. 

Meanwhile, Vance once again leads the market for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 47%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently his closest competitor at 11%, while President Trump is trading at 4%. 

Trump and supporters like former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon have been talking about the president running for and even winning a third term, despite the term limits set by the Constitution. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump met with his former attorney Alan Dershowitz to discuss a draft copy of a book in which Dershowitz studies whether Trump could serve a third term.

Currently, his odds of announcing a run before Election Day 2028 are at 20%.

Kalshi markets now forecast: 

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