Traders skeptical of Trump’s 10% credit card cap

Kalshi traders are increasingly skeptical that President Donald Trump’s proposed credit card cap will become reality this year.

President Trump wants credit card companies to reduce their interest rates to 10% or less across the board for one year. The market shows a 34% chance of credit card rates being capped this year.

Many consumers would probably welcome a cap on their credit card interest rates along with any measure that might leave some extra money in their pockets. LendingTree estimates that the average annual percentage rate for credit cards being offered to consumers as of January is 23.79%, which is down for the fourth-straight month and currently at the lowest average rate since March of 2023.

One reason for traders’ skepticism may be resistance on Capitol Hill. The idea isn’t being met with much support, even among Trump’s biggest supporters. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Tuesday that the proposal could create “negative secondary effects” such as a reduction in credit card companies’ lending abilities and a dip in spending among consumers.

Even if President Trump had full legislative support for a one-year credit card cap, he would still have to contend with the legal ramifications of the cap. JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum warned in a fourth-quarter earnings call with reporters on Tuesday that credit card companies would likely challenge credit card interest rate controls in court.

Traders are similarly skeptical of another Trump proposal: tariff rebate checks. President Trump has floated the idea of sending a $2,000 “tariff dividend” rebate check to every American citizen for the past few months.

Currently, there’s only a 30% chance that Americans will receive a tariff stimulus check before the end of the year, a 21% chance that checks will go out by August, and a 14% chance that checks will go in the mail by July.

Trump has repeatedly brought up the idea of a tariff dividend rebate check, but he’s also forgotten his own proposal when pressed by reporters. Mediaite reported on Wednesday that New York Times reporter Katie Rogers posted an audio clip from an interview with the President in which she and Tyler Pager tried to bring up Trump’s tariff rebate check proposal. Even before they could ask a question about the idea, Trump asked the pair, “When did I do that?”

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}