With the midterms approaching and Democrats heavily favored to retake the House, Kalshi traders see a third Trump impeachment as the likely outcome.
The market for President Trump's impeachment shows a 66% chance he will be impeached before 2028 and a 26% chance that he will be impeached before March of next year.
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However, chances are much lower that President Trump will be both impeached and removed from office. The market for President Trump's impeachment and removal shows only a 17% chance.
The wide gap between the two markets reflects the different thresholds for impeachment and removal. The House can approve articles of impeachment by a simple majority, while conviction in a Senate impeachment trial requires a two-thirds vote of senators present.
Democrats prepare investigations
Democrats are preparing an extensive oversight agenda if they gain control of Congress in November, although party leaders have not committed to pursuing another impeachment of Trump.
The Atlantic’s Matt Viser reported that Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire has been meeting with congressional investigators to prepare potential investigations into Trump administration officials and members of the president's family.
“The team in recent months has assembled a list of people in President Trump's orbit and administration whose actions are worthy of a probe, and they have brainstormed possible witnesses, drafted information requests, and gamed out how the administration might respond,” Viser reported.
Rep. Robert Garcia of California, the ranking Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, is also preparing potential investigations if Democrats win control of the chamber.
“He told me he keeps a ‘running list of the most corrupt things that the Trump family has done’ on a whiteboard in his home in Long Beach where senior staffers this week wrapped up several days of strategy meetings. ‘There’s a lot of ideas and possible investigations on there,’ he said.”
The Week’s Joel Mathis also examined the possibility that Cabinet officials could face impeachment efforts, starting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth in September. Speaker Mike Johnson subsequently sent the House into an early recess, delaying consideration of Massie's resolution until after the midterms. Massie accused Republican leaders of trying to avoid a vote, while Johnson dismissed the impeachment effort as a “stunt.”
“Some party leaders are mum about the idea for now,” Mathis wrote. “Democrats ‘haven’t ruled anything out’ if they win the midterms, said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to MS NOW. ‘And we haven’t ruled anything in.’”
Balance of power
The chances for President Trump’s impeachment and removal depend on how well Democrats do in the November midterms.
The market for Congress’ balance of power shows a 63% chance that Democrats sweep the U.S. House and Senate, a 30% chance that Democrats take the House and Republicans keep the Senate, and an 8% chance that Republicans sweep the House and Senate.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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