President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak before Congress at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday in what will be the first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second term. Kalshi traders are already pricing a range of outcomes in several SOTU-related markets.
SOTU: Who will attend?
Kalshi’s market on who will be in attendance for the SOTU shows Democratic Rep. Al Green of Texas as one of the most competitive trades as of Monday with a 51% chance he’ll be in attendance.
Rep. Green was ejected from the chamber last February for interrupting a speech given by President Trump to a joint session of Congress. Several members of the opposition party also brought signs and paddles to silently heckle the President, with phrases such as “Save Medicaid” and “Musk Steals,” referencing Elon Musk and his now-defunct DOGE government spending initiative.
This year, The New York Times reported that some Democrats are planning to boycott the speech, including Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota and Rep. Veronica Escobar of Texas, who will be holding a rally on the National Mall called the “People’s State of the Union.”
Other notable names in the attendance market include President Trump’s youngest son, Barron Trump, at 61% and Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Deputy of the National Assembly of Venezuela María Corina Machado at 46%.
Trump’s children
Attendance among Democratic leaders isn’t the only focus for traders. Another market is examining the chances of all of President Trump’s children attending Tuesday’s address.
The odds of a full family reunion are not looking good. Traders are pricing only a 35% chance that Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump, and Barron Trump will make it.
During Trump’s first term, Ivanka Trump served as an unofficial adviser and her husband Jared Kushner served as a senior adviser. This time, they have taken on roles in the private sector.
How long will President Trump’s address last?
Traders are also forecasting the length of the President’s SOTU address. As of Monday, they are predicting it will be over 90 minutes.
According to the American Presidency Project, President Trump spoke for an average of 80 minutes and 20 seconds in his first four State of the Union addresses. His joint session to Congress on March 4, 2024, lasted 99 minutes and 32 seconds.
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders now predict
Rep. Al Green attending the SOTU address: 51%
Barron Trump attending the SOTU address: 61%
Chances of all five of President Trump’s children attending the SOTU address: 35%
The length of President Trump’s SOTU address: 93.7 minutes
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