Alexander Volkanovski defends the UFC featherweight title against undefeated Movsar Evloev in the main event of UFC 333, and Kalshi traders have the champion at 50% to win, with Evloev also at 50%. Petr Yan puts the bantamweight belt on the line against Merab Dvalishvili in their third meeting, and Kalshi traders have Yan at 58%.
Below the two title fights, Lone'er Kavanagh and Ramazan Temirov are priced as a toss-up at 51% each, Alexander Volkov is a slim favorite over fellow heavyweight Rizvan Kuniev, and Aaron Pico faces Losene Keita, who took the fight on short notice. Kalshi traders have both title fights going the distance at better than 65% as of this writing.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the UFC.
When and where is UFC 333?
UFC 333 takes place Saturday, Oct. 24 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, with the main card starting at 2 p.m. ET (11 a.m. PT) on Paramount+.
Who is favored in the Volkanovski vs. Evloev main event?
Volkanovski (28-4) heads into his 11th straight title fight as champion in his second reign, having beaten Diego Lopes by decision at UFC 314 in April 2025 and again in their rematch in February. Evloev (20-0) earned the shot with a contentious decision over Lerone Murphy in March. Kalshi traders have Volkanovski at 50% and Evloev at 50% as of this writing, and Kalshi traders have the fight going the distance at 67% as of this writing. The two likeliest single outcomes are decision wins, with Kalshi traders having Evloev by decision at 34% and Volkanovski by decision at 32%.
What is the co-main event at UFC 333?
Yan (20-5) took the bantamweight title from Dvalishvili (21-5) in December 2025, with his boxing and takedown defense deciding the rematch. Dvalishvili won the first meeting and has said he plans to reclaim the belt. Kalshi traders have Yan at 58% to win as of this writing. Kalshi traders have the fight going the distance at 71% as of this writing, the highest price for any main card bout.
What else is on the UFC 333 main card?
Kavanagh vs. Temirov: Temirov (20-3) arrives on a 12-fight win streak after a first-round knockout of Steve Erceg in July, while Kavanagh (10-2) fights out of London. Kalshi traders have each flyweight at 51% as of this writing, the second-closest price on the card. Kalshi traders have the fight ending in a KO or TKO at 51% as of this writing.
Volkov vs. Kuniev: Volkov (40-11), ranked No. 2 at heavyweight, meets fellow Russian Kuniev (14-3-1), a former Eagle FC champion who has never been finished. Kalshi traders have Volkov at 53% as of this writing and have the fight going the distance at 66% as of this writing.
Pico vs. Keita: Keita stepped in on short notice for Arnold Allen after his viral first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov, and he faces Pico (14-5) in a featherweight bout. Kalshi traders have Pico at 57% as of this writing, have a KO or TKO ending at 55% as of this writing, and have the fight going the distance at 34% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline at UFC 333?
An undefeated challenger faces a champion with four career losses, and the price is close to even. Evloev is 20-0 and Volkanovski has lost only to Islam Makhachev twice, Ilia Topuria and Corey Nelson. Kalshi traders have the main event within a point of dead level as of this writing, tighter than the co-main and every other main card bout except Kavanagh vs. Temirov.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have no main card fighter above 58% as of this writing, and the two title fights are the likeliest to go the distance. The featherweight bout is the closest call of the five, and Kalshi's prices for UFC 333 will keep moving through fight day.
What is the main event of UFC 333? Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against Movsar Evloev, with Kalshi traders having Volkanovski at 50% as of this writing.
Who is favored to win, Volkanovski or Evloev? Kalshi traders have Volkanovski at 50% and Evloev at 50% as of this writing.
Who is favored in the Yan vs. Dvalishvili title fight? Kalshi traders have Petr Yan at 58% to win as of this writing.
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