Kimi Antonelli can become the youngest Formula 1 champion at the United States Grand Prix, but Kalshi traders have Max Verstappen as the favorite to win the race at 47%, with Antonelli at 27% and Mercedes teammate George Russell at 9%.
Antonelli leads Russell by 102 points with six races left, and he has to win in Austin to close out the title this weekend. Verstappen arrives on a two-race winning streak and was second fastest in first practice, while Charles Leclerc led both Friday sessions for Ferrari.
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When and where is the 2026 United States Grand Prix?
The United States Grand Prix is Sunday, Oct. 25 at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, with the 56-lap race starting at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) on Apple TV.
Who is favored to win the United States Grand Prix?
Verstappen is the favorite after winning in Malaysia and then taking the sprint, pole and race in Singapore, and he also won in Austin last year. Kalshi traders have Verstappen at 47% to win as of this writing. Antonelli has won eight of the season's 17 rounds and finished third in Singapore, and Kalshi traders have him at 27% as of this writing. Russell sits at 9%. In practice, Leclerc topped the times in both sessions, with Antonelli 0.042 seconds back in second in FP2 and Verstappen third at 0.189 seconds off the pace. There is no sprint race this weekend, so qualifying on Saturday sets the grid for Sunday.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have Verstappen at 47%, Antonelli at 27% and Russell at 9% to win the United States Grand Prix as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline at the United States Grand Prix?
Antonelli has his first chance to clinch. He leads the standings with 340 points to Russell's 238, and a win would move him to 365 and a 127-point lead. With 125 points left after Austin, he needs to leave the weekend with at least a 125-point cushion, and RacingNews365 and Crash.net both report that a second-place finish or lower keeps the title fight alive until Mexico City. If he clinches, he would be 20 years old and would break Sebastian Vettel's record as the youngest champion, set in 2010 at 23.
What are the expectations for Antonelli, Verstappen and the rest of the 2026 season?
Antonelli has won eight of 17 races and leads Russell by 102 points, with Lewis Hamilton at 229 points and Verstappen at 221. Even a win in Austin would not guarantee the title unless Russell and Hamilton also fall short of the points they would need, so the championship may carry into the Mexico City Grand Prix on Nov. 1.
Verstappen has the momentum with two straight wins, but his points total leaves him out of the title picture if Antonelli wins. Five races follow Austin: Mexico City, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have Verstappen as a clear favorite at 47%, and Antonelli is the driver who can change the championship if he wins. Kalshi's prices for the United States Grand Prix will keep moving through qualifying and into race day.
What are the odds to win the United States Grand Prix? Kalshi traders have Max Verstappen at 47%, Kimi Antonelli at 27% and George Russell at 9% as of this writing.
Who is favored to win the United States Grand Prix? Kalshi traders have Max Verstappen as the favorite at 47% as of this writing.
Can Kimi Antonelli clinch the 2026 F1 title in Austin? Yes, but only with a win, and Austin would also need Russell and Hamilton to fall short of the points they need.
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