Puck off, eh? Canada edges USA in Olympic hockey odds

The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina are drawing to a close. However, with the United States and Canada set to battle for gold in men’s hockey, the best may still be yet to come.

Both Canada and the U.S. will put undefeated tournament records on the line today at Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena, with puck drop scheduled for 8:10 a.m. ET. 

(Click here to trade on the 2026 Olympic Games) 

Kalshi traders still price the Canadians as slight favorites. However, the trading action here has been dynamic since the United States’ lopsided semifinal victory.

Let’s dive into the championship market.

^{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Entering the weekend, traders have Canada priced at 53¢ to defeat the Americans. However, the U.S. was briefly priced above 50% within the past 24 hours. Traders became bullish on Team USA following its 6-2 win over Slovakia on Friday, but Canada soon surged back ahead in the title market.

Neither North American nation medaled in men’s ice hockey at the 2022 Olympics (Beijing). But things have changed now that NHL players are once again permitted to participate in the games.

The Canadians have displayed fantastic skill and resiliency in the current tournament. They’ve earned a perfect 5-0 record so far. If the team can manage a sixth win, that will bring a record 10th gold medal in the event.

En route to the 2026 gold-medal game, the Canadians have taken down Czechia (twice), Switzerland, France, and Finland. Be that as it may, Canada required come-from-behind efforts in both the quarterfinals and semifinals.

The Americans have bulldozed their way to this championship spot. They are also a perfect 5-0, and have outscored their competition in Milan, 24-8. This is arguably the most talented hockey team in U.S. history.

Can USA upset its neighbor to the north by winning its first Olympic gold medal here since 1980 (Lake Placid)? The sport’s popularity in the U.S. is already percolating, but a win here versus Canada would be historic. Of course, the Canadians have long held the upper hand in this border war, and are 10-4-3 overall against Team USA in official international play.

Ahead of the gold medal game in Milan, Canada forward Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) is the current favorite to be named as the tournament’s Most Valuable Player. The 29-year-old McDavid leads all Olympic skaters with 13 points and 11 assists, and has a 72% chance to take home the award.

After McDavid, USA goalie Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) is priced at 11¢. He’s been a nightmare for opponents’ front lines, and has saved a tournament-high 94.7% of shots against.

Forwards Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils) and Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks) have also performed admirably in these games. USA’s Hughes netted a pair of goals in the semifinals, while Celebrini has been everywhere for Canada behind his 11 total points. Regardless, neither player has an Olympic MVP probability above 10% at this time.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

To win Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey Gold Medal:

To win Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey MVP:

(Click here to trade on the 2026 Olympic Games) 

Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}