Venezuelan vice president and oil minister Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president on Tuesday, the same day former president Nicolás Maduro appeared in a U.S. court to plead not guilty on federal drug-trafficking charges. According to Kalshi traders, she’s likely to hold the job for a while.
Kalshi’s market on who will be Venezuela’s head of state at the end of the year gives Rodríguez a 54% chance of lasting until at least the end of 2026. The same market shows a 12% chance opposition leader and former Ambassador to Argentina Edmundo González Urrita will take over for Rodríguez, and a 20% chance Nobel Peace Prize winner and former National Assembly of Venezuela member María Corina Machado will gain power.
So far, Rodríguez has vowed to work with the Trump administration while she serves as president. She also expressed “sorrow” for the suffering inflicted on her people under the “illegitimate military aggression against [her] homeland.”
Rodríguez’s status as president also depends on when Venezuela will hold its next election following the U.S. military’s sudden ouster and arrest of Maduro. Markets indicate it could take some time before Venezuela’s voters return to the polls.
There is currently a 64% chance that Venezuela will hold another presidential election before June 1, 2027, and a 47% chance it will be held before the start of next year. There’s also a 26% chance the election will happen by September of this year.
Legislative action
Meanwhile, in the U.S., some Democratic lawmakers, and even a few Republicans, have expressed concern about the legality of President Donald Trump’s regime change in Venezuela.
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who has become a vocal critic of the president in the wake of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, questioned Trump’s motive for the arrest and ouster of Maduro on X by asking, “Why hasn’t the Trump admin taken action against Mexican cartels?” She also accused Trump of having “a clear move for control over Venezuelan oil supplies.”
The Senate is also taking further action to rein in president Trump’s military powers regarding Venezuela. Axios reported that the Senate voted on Thursday by a margin of 52-47 on a procedural vote to advance a war powers resolution against the president, requiring he obtain congressional approval before taking any further military actions in the region. Five Republicans broke with their party to approve the procedural vote including Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Todd Young of Indiana, and Josh Hawley of Missouri.
A second vote is still required before it can pass the Senate and advance to the House. ABC News obtained a memo from the Office of Management and Budget showing that the president’s advisors would recommend he veto the measure if it came to his desk.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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