That was quick.
Good afternoon, traders.
Last week was a busy one.
The Brewers swept their way to the World Series, the White House cycled through another press secretary, and the midterm map keeps shifting with two weeks to go.
This week we're watching the ALCS reach its conclusion, tracking the tightest midterm races on Kalshi, and sizing up who replaces Katie Zacharia in the briefing room. Let's get into it.
For informational purporses only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
The Midterms
Midterm elections are barely two weeks away, and things are continuing to heat up. Texas has become the center of national attention as Democrat James Talarico has gained momentum against Republican Ken Paxton. Paxton was able to beat incumbent John Cornyn to win the Republican nomination, while Talarico won the Democratic primary despite only being elected to the Texas House of Representatives at age 29.
Paxton is relying on support from President Trump and his MAGA base, whereas Talarico is attempting to appeal to voters worried about affordability and corruption.
Heading to the Northeast, Democrat Troy Jackson is running against Republican Susan Collins in her bid for a 6th term as senator for the state. Collins is running on her bipartisan record and the fact she has maintained federal funding for the state. Jackson has challenged how independent Collins really is from Trump and has highlighted her confirmation vote for Brett Kavanaugh during Trump's first term. An increase in fuel and electricity prices is a central issue to many Maine voters and both candidates have spent much of their time on the campaign trail explaining to voters how they would fix it.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers are facing off for the empty seat left by Gary Peters. The progressive Democrat El-Sayed has largely focused campaign efforts toward Medicare for All, clean energy, and income inequality. Rogers, on the other hand, has been highlighting national security issues and his experience working in government. A large focus of Michigan voters is the impact tariffs have had on the automotive industry, which both candidates have tried to use as leverage for their campaigns.
Staying in the Midwest, Iowa's open Senate race is between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson. Turek, a Democrat, is basing his run on economic issues faced by farmers like affordability and rural healthcare access. Hinson, on the other hand, is campaigning on the importance of conservative economic policies to promote agricultural growth and border security. Like in Michigan, the federal tariffs have become a major point of contention due to Iowa's agricultural economy.
In the Golden State, incumbent Karen Bass is facing off against Nithya Raman in the LA Mayoral Election. The largest points of contention come from Bass's handling of homelessness, the affordability crisis, and public safety, particularly in regard to the 2025 Palisades wildfires. Raman has positioned herself as a progressive alternative to Bass and believes Los Angeles needs more substantial reforms.
MLB World Series
Meanwhile, the World Series is only days away and three teams remain in contention to win it all.
The Milwaukee Brewers managed to secure the National League pennant after a devastating sweep of the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. This happened thanks to a remarkable 6-4 Game 4 comeback victory after trailing 4-0. It will be their first World Series appearance since 1982, but who they will face is still to be decided.
While the National League is all sorted, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians are still battling as Tampa Bay leads the American League Championship Series 3-2.
Pitcher Drew Rasmussen put on a phenomenal performance over Cleveland yesterday and allowed just one run across 7 innings. Cleveland is still fighting, though. The Guardians were able to come back from a 2-0 deficit against the Chicago White Sox in the Division Series and won three games straight to advance. This time, they'll need two consecutive wins on the road to keep their World Series hopes alive.
However, traders currently seem to believe that after trailing 2-1 but winning games 4 and 5, the momentum will carry well into tonight. We'll definitely be watching to see how things play out tonight (and perhaps even tomorrow).
Press Secretary
Less than a week after being appointed by President Trump to replace Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary, Katie Zacharia was removed from the position last Friday.
Zacharia’s first White House briefing lasted only 15 minutes and quickly garnered criticism based on her performance and questionable legal qualifications. Though initially describing herself as an attorney, Zacharia said she didn’t pass the California bar exam and never retook it.
As news of this broke, traders reacted quickly and began speculating on Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Traders have the top candidates as Anna Kelly and Scott Jennings.
Anna Kelly is traders' top pick for the position, and she is arguably the strongest internal pick for the administration. Kelly served as principal deputy press secretary under both Leavitt and Zacharia, so she understands press operations well and her experience working on messaging and priorities at the Republican National Committee for Trump is another plus. Additionally, shifting responsibilities to her would likely be a smoother transition than other candidates, avoiding a repeat of last week.
Scott Jennings has a long history of working in media and relations for the Republican Party. Jennings is easily recognizable to many in the world of politics because of how often he appears on CNN panels in defense of the Republican Party and Donald Trump. On these panels, he is often outnumbered but does a solid job of explaining actions being undertaken by the party and the president. He also worked inside the Bush White House, giving him more experience than Kelly, but with both candidates neck and neck, we'll just have to wait and see who gets picked.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Chip Somodevilla
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
