The week ahead: Playoffs, Poles, and PCE

How many Poles does it take to elect a new president?

19,692,324, according to results from May 18th's first round of voting. That's nearly 70% of all registered voters. High turnout is also expected for round two, which will take place this Sunday, June 1st.

Kalshi's Polish election market currently views pro-European Union candidate Rafał Trzaskowski as the favorite, with traders pricing his odds of defeating populist and former boxer Karol Nawrocki at 64%.

While I'm far from an expert on the subject, I think when you're dealing with an Eastern European election, it's always a good idea to pick the guy with the most consonants in his last name (NOT TRADING ADVICE).

But whatever you decide to trade on in our Polish election market, be sure to check out our margin of victory market.

The Eastern Conference Finals between Indiana and New York has been one of the most exciting playoff series in recent memory*, with both teams pulling off amazing 4th quarter rallies. While Indiana currently boasts a 2-1 lead, New York's 20-point comeback in Game 3 may have shifted the momentum. That said, whichever team emerges victorious in the east may prove irrelevant, at least according to our current trader consensus. After last night's Game 4 victory over Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma City's odds of winning the Championship have risen to 75%.

*Nitrous oxide has destroyed my memory, so maybe this year's games aren't that special.

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While SpaceX had hoped to launch Starship Flight 9 last week, a delayed approval from the FAA put those plans on hold. But now that SpaceX has been given the government green light, odds of a launch this week have jumped above 90%, and Flight 9 could lift off as early as Tuesday evening. Now, traders are speculating on what will happen during the launch attempt. Odds of the craft reaching space are high, but a successful splashdown during its return is far less certain.

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Nvidia reports earnings this Wednesday, with analysts warning of a potentially "messy" Q2 outlook. The call will likely be packed with valuable insights. It's also likely to be painfully boring. But thanks to Kalshi's Nvidia earnings call market, it doesn't have to be. It allows you to trade directly on what is said during the call. Normally, hearing phrases like "GPU shortage" or "export restrictions" would hurt your bottom line. But this "mention market" flips the script by letting you turn bad news into potential profits.

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— MarketWatch

As we mentioned last week, the Bitcoin 2025 Conference runs today through Thursday in Las Vegas, Nevada, and we’ve launched several markets to celebrate the event, including:

Kalshi’s cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour will also be speaking at the event, right alongside the Vice President of the United States and that guy who started a huge illegal drug market on the dark web!

If you see him, be sure to say “Old Terry sent me." The first five people to do so will get a free handful of loose Skittles, probably (supplies are limited).

🚀 Stay ahead of the news — trade real-world events at Kalshi.com.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Shannon Magiera on X: @weathershanFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.