Will Los Angeles elect a democratic socialist mayor?

“Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” asked Ronald Reagan during his presidential debate against incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980. 

Nearly 46 years later, Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman posed the same question to Angelenos while challenging incumbent Mayor Karen Bass during their final debate before Election Day in November. 

Locally, Los Angeles voters across party lines are still weighing which candidate can better manage the city’s challenges, including wildfire crisis response, policing, and homelessness. Meanwhile, the race has a national framing: a Democrat who is part of the legacy establishment against an up-and-coming democratic socialist. 

If Raman wins the election, Los Angeles would follow New York City, where a younger challenger endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America defeated an establishment Democrat.

“This is one of the most competitive mayoral races we’ve seen in a really long time when an incumbent is on the ballot,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California and director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Labs.

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The race is drawing serious trading interest and has become the fourth-largest market on Kalshi by volume at more than $102.7 million, trailing only markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, the Pro Football championship, and the winner of this year's World Series. 

Prediction market-implied odds of Raman winning the mayoral race stand at 53%, a six-percentage-point lead over Bass's 46.9%, a reversal from Bass's 23.6-percentage-point advantage one month ago. Grose said that the current odds for both candidates accurately reflect the race, with Raman holding a marginal edge. 

“From what I’m seeing on the ground, I would say that’s about right, because this is a highly volatile election. I might say Raman is slightly underpriced at 53 cents, given that there is so much anti-incumbent fervor against Bass and that undecided may break against the incumbent,” Grose told Kalshi News.

The most recent poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which was co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, showed that Bass had a disapproval rating of more than 60%. Grose said, “It is really hard to win as an incumbent when you have over 60% disapproval.” 

According to John Pitney, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College, Bass’s low approval rating stems in large part from her role during the Palisades and Eaton fires last year. Los Angeles residents have criticized Bass for being out of the country while the fires raged, destroying 16,000 structures. 

“Raman has the edge. The 2025 wildfires were a test of Bass’ leadership. She flunked,” Pitney said in emailed comments. 

The National Weather Service for Los Angeles issued red flag warnings this week for parts of Southern California as Santa Ana winds raised the risk of fire outbreaks, ABC7 reported. 

The warnings follow Tuesday’s debate, where both candidates addressed the Los Angeles Fire Department’s confirmation that more than half of its fleet has aged out.

When asked whether the city is disaster-ready, Bass said, “I do think that we would be prepared today for the next catastrophic wildfire,” while Raman said, “I hope we are ready.” 

Despite the democratic socialist’s edge and the incumbent mayor’s disapproval rating, the election outcome remains uncertain. “Raman could still make damaging mistakes, so she does not have a lock on the job,” Pitney continued. 

USC’s Grose left room for a Bass comeback, saying a major scandal, new information, or a crisis could reshape the race even as voters make up their minds before Election Day. 

The mayoral election remains an open playing field because of undecided voters, such as progressive Democratic voters who have yet to choose a candidate and some of Los Angeles’ red-leaning electorate, per Grose.

Conservative voters during the primary initially backed Spencer Pratt, a reality television personality who lost his home in last year’s Palisades fires, but now these voters are up for grabs. While former Pratt voters may skip the ballot, finding the two mayoral options unappealing, both Bass and Raman have made efforts to win them over. 

Raman’s decision to quote Reagan at the start of the debate was an appeal to conservative voters who supported Pratt, Grose said. Elsewhere, Bass has moved closer to the center, emphasizing her alignment with the police and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. Raman, however, wants to replace the police chief, but has avoided providing a firm answer on whether she, if elected, would fire McDonnell before Los Angeles hosts the 2028 Summer Olympic Games.

According to Grose, the biggest factor between now and Election Day is voter mobilization: which campaign is going to be able to get ballots turned in and get people to the polls. One factor in mobilization efforts includes whether voters who received mail-in ballots return them.

“There’s a ton of ballot propositions in the state this year, so a lot of people might be sitting on their ballots because there’s just a lot of information, even once they’ve decided the mayor,” Grose continued. 

Even after Election Day ends, counting ballots could take several days before officials announce a winner. Market odds could swing during the counting process, similar to 2022, when Bass won the mayoral election despite trailing in early counts.

With Election Day less than three weeks away, Pitney framed the voters’ choice as one between “the untested Raman and the failed Bass.” But he added that “nobody who watches Los Angeles can say: ‘This is what success looks like,’” underscoring the troubles facing the city and its residents regardless of who wins.

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