After sweeping the rival Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, the New York Yankees World Series odds surged as high as 18%.
Two games into the ALDS though, those odds have shifted dramatically. After dropping the first two games, the Yankees are now priced at just 4.4% to lift the World Series trophy.
To keep their season alive, they’ll need to win on Wednesday night when they take on the Rays in Yankee Stadium. As it stands, Kalshi traders favor them to do so, pricing the Yankees at 60% as of Wednesday afternoon.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Yankees home favorites versus Rays in ALDS Game 3
The first two games of the ALDS have been forgettable for the Yankees and their fans. After blistering the Red Sox off the diamond, the “Bronx Bombers” have mustered only two runs in 18 innings against the Rays pitching staff.
They’ll likely need to rectify that on Wednesday should they wish to survive and force a Game 4.
Kalshi traders favor them to do so, pricing the Yankees at 60% and 40% to win the game by more than 1.5 runs. The Yanks will turn the ball to Max Fried, who has fared well against Tampa Bay in his career, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.81 ERA in seven career starts.
Fried last pitched in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, allowing just one run in six innings of work against the Red Sox.
Importantly, Fried’s handedness may play a role on Wednesday’s outcome. Although one of baseball’s best teams all season, the Rays finished the year 26th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. By contrast, they were the fourth best offense in terms of wRC+ against right-handers this season.
The Rays will hand the baseball to veteran right-hander Nick Martinez, who threw 12 innings against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium during the regular season. In those innings, Martinez allowed just three runs in the hitter-friendly park and over the course of the season he posted a 2.38 ERA on the road.
Behind him, the Rays bullpen is as well rested as it could possibly be, giving manager Kevin Cash the perfect setup to mix-and-match relievers when necessary.
Though the Rays won the AL East this season during a game at Yankee Stadium, Tampa Bay only won two of the six contests the two teams played in the Bronx. The Yankees hope that trend continues tonight.
White Sox favored to eliminate Guardians in Game 3
The Chicago White Sox lost 102 games last season, posting the second-worst record in the league at the end of 2025.
A year later they’re on the verge of clinching a spot in the American League Championship Series, and Kalshi traders favor them to earn the berth tonight, pricing them at 53% in Game 3 versus the Cleveland Guardians.
The White Sox edged out the Guardians in two games in Cleveland, taking a 2-0 series lead as they square off in Chicago on Wednesday. With home field advantage, the team will send left-hander Sean Newcomb to the bump to start Wednesday’s affair.
A former starter, Newcomb has mostly been working out of the bullpen for the White Sox over the course of the season, but he’s familiar with the opener role, starting six games in total this season. On Monday he threw two scoreless innings in relief against the Guardians in Game 2, allowing just one hit and one walk.
After Newcomb, it’s expected that the White Sox will have everyone at their disposal as they seek to wrap up the series and send Cleveland home.
As they seek to avoid that fate, the Guardians will also utilize an opener, giving the nod to right-hander Daniel Espino. Espino threw two-thirds of an inning in Game 1, but last worked a full inning on September 25. Given the off day between Games 2 and 3, expectations are that manager Stephen Vogt will have an arsenal of arms at the ready should matchups warrant them.
Potential follows to Espino include right-hander Tanner Bibee as well as left-handers Foster Griffen and Joey Cantillo, according to MLB.com.
If the Guardians are unable to force a Game 4, the White Sox will clinch their spot in the ALCS and face the winner of the series between Tampa Bay and New York in the next round. Should the Guardians stave off elimination, Game 4 would take place on Thursday.
World Series Odds: Rays are American League's top contender
Kalshi traders make the Tampa Bay Rays the third most likely team to win the World Series this year, pricing them at 17.8% to hoist the trophy.
The Rays have breezed through a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees and need only win one of three remaining potential ALDS games to clinch a spot in the next round. Should they get there, they'll face the winner of the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians series, which arguably features the two worst remaining teams in the playoffs.
Given that path, Kalshi traders place Tampa Bay in both of the most likely World Series matchup scenarios. Tampa Bay squaring off with the Dodgers is the most likely matchup according to Kalshi traders, who price the outcome at 26.7%. Meanwhile, the Rays meeting the Milwaukee Brewers is the next most likely at 18.6%.
Tampa Bay will need to win five more games to make either of those scenarios a reality though.
Standing in their way remains the Yankees, who are now priced at just 4.4% to hoist the World Series Trophy after falling behind 2-0 in the ALDS.
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