2026 midterm odds: Democrats favored to sweep Congress with 22 days to go

With the November midterm elections just weeks away, Kalshi markets increasingly favor Democrats in the battle for control of Congress.

Republicans began the election cycle holding majorities in both chambers, but the latest Kalshi prices suggest Democrats have a strong opportunity to take control of the House and a credible path to flipping the Senate.

Democrats: 62% | Republicans: 40%

Democrats have increased their chances to win the Senate, according to Kalshi's market for control of the upper chamber. Traders give Democrats a 62% chance of gaining control, compared with 40% for Republicans.

That represents a substantial change from March 10, when Republicans were priced at 56% and Democrats at 44%. By September 18, Democratic odds climbed to 57%, and the latest pricing puts the party at approximately three chances in five of winning the chamber.

The Senate remains the more competitive of the two congressional contests. Republicans can still retain control, and the outcome will depend on how several closely watched races unfold. A Democratic advantage in the market is not a guarantee of victory, particularly with several weeks remaining for campaigns, polling and voter sentiment to change.

Democrats: 90% | Republicans: 10%

The outlook is considerably more favorable for Democrats in the House of Representatives. Kalshi traders currently give the party a 90% chance of winning control, compared with 10% for Republicans.

The latest figures represent a marked increase from the March 10 market, when Democrats were priced at 83% and Republicans at 17%. By September 15, Democratic odds had reached 86%, and the market now places them at nine chances in ten of winning the chamber.

A Democratic victory would give the party control of the House agenda, including committee leadership, legislative priorities and congressional oversight. However, the final result will depend on individual district races, turnout and the distribution of close contests nationwide.

The market’s strong Democratic advantage suggests that traders view the House as the party’s clearest opportunity to gain congressional power this November.

The balance of power market combines the House and Senate outcomes into four possible scenarios. As of October 12, the displayed prices are:

The most likely individual outcome is a Democratic sweep, in which Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress. The next most likely scenario is a divided Congress, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans retaining the Senate.

A Republican sweep is priced considerably lower, while the possibility of Republicans winning the House as Democrats capture the Senate is a remote outcome in the current market.

These prices should be interpreted as the market’s assessment of each specific scenario, not as a simple calculation from the separate House and Senate odds. The four displayed percentages also do not add up to exactly 100%, reflecting the fact that market prices can be affected by trading spreads, liquidity and other market mechanics.

Kalshi's October 12 markets point toward a more favorable congressional outlook for Democrats than the one reflected back in March.

Democrats have moved from a near-even Senate contest to a 61% market-implied chance of winning the upper chamber. In the House, their odds have increased from 83% to 90%. The balance of power market identifies a Democratic sweep as the leading individual scenario.

The Senate remains the more uncertain contest, but the overall message from the markets is that Democrats are favored to make substantial gains in November, with the possibility of taking control of both chambers.

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