2026 Midterm Elections: The races that will decide control of Congress

The United States midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. In many states, Kalshi traders now price Democrats to win over enough voters to retake both the House and the Senate.

Held at the halfway point of a presidential term, midterms can also distinctly reshape state governments across the country. Every seat in the House of Representatives is on the ballot, along with roughly one-third of the Senate seats. Plus, during the 2026 midterms, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections to determine their governors. 

With relatively narrow congressional margins, voter turnout is crucial. A small number of voters in key races could determine whether Republicans maintain control of Washington, or if Democrats claim one or both chambers of Congress. 

Here are the most important election dates, races, and storylines to follow throughout the 2026 midterm election cycle. 

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The 2026 midterm general elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Primary elections have taken place throughout the year, with the primary calendar running from March into September. The final statewide primary elections took place on September 15. 

During the 2026 midterm election, at the federal level, voters will elect:

The new congress will begin on January 3, 2027, following the post-election period in which vote results are officially certified and any unresolved election contests are settled. 

Following the midterm election, House members serve two-year terms. Therefore, the entire chamber is contested during every federal election cycle. Senators on the other hand serve staggered six-year terms. This ensures that approximately one-third of the Senate seats appear on ballots every two years. 

In addition to the congressional seats available, 36 gubernatorial races will take place during 2026. Currently, of the 36 states electing a governor, the offices are split evenly along party lines: 18 Democratic and 18 Republican. 

Election registration deadlines, early voting periods, and voting procedures vary by state. Voters should consult their state and local election authorities for specific requirements. 

Republicans entered 2026 holding both chambers of Congress, but maintaining those majorities with voters will be difficult. Furthermore, early expectations show distinct differences when comparing the races happening for seats in the House and the Senate. 

The Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats, effectively meaning Republicans have a 53-47 advantage in the chamber. 

Because Republican VP JD Vance can break a 50-50 Senate tie, Democrats need to get to 51 seats in order to take outright control of the Senate. Using the starting place of a 47-seat caucus means that Democrats need to earn a net gain of four seats during this midterm election cycle, assuming they are able to maintain the seats they currently hold. 

As it stands, Kalshi traders now favor Democrats to flip control of the Senate, a reversal from earlier in the year when Republicans were the favorite to win over midterm voters and hold the chamber.

The House is different. Every congressional district and seat is being contested, though ultimate control is typically determined by a small group of midterm election voters in competitive seats. Despite that being the case, prediction market traders on Kalshi price Democrats as heavy favorites to win control of the House. 

Prediction market pricing can change substantially before Election Day though, as polling and other candidate level news emerges that could influence midterm voters.

Though there are hundreds of candidates and ballots, only a fraction of the midterm races are expected to determine control of Congress. The most consequential midterm contests are normally concentrated among voters across several competitive Senate states and a collection of congressional House districts. 

During the 2026 midterms, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs, and as of mid-September, seven Senate races are noted as “toss ups,” according to the Cook Political Report.

Those seven midterm races are being held in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas, with five of the seats being held by Republicans and two by Democrats.

From these midterm races, several stand out, like in Texas where Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are on the ballot. This race is included as one of the toss up seats by the Cook Political Report, and Kalshi traders currently favor it to be the tightest of all the midterm Senate elections. Nearly two months out from the election, traders make the race nearly 50-50, matching the toss up designation provided by the Cook Political Report. (Update: Republican Ken Paxton is now trailing Democrat James Talarico on Kalshi's Texas Senate midterm Election market, and his chances are priced at 40%).

The Senate race in Maine will provide Democrats with an opportunity to flip a seat. The toss up race pits incumbent Republican Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, with Jackson the favorite in early September according to Kalshi traders.

Ohio is hosting a special election for midterm voters to fill the Senator seat vacated by JD Vance, who accepted the role of Vice President after Donald Trump was elected in 2024. Former Senator Sherrod Brown is the current favorite at 53%, but the race is expected to be among the tightest overall. 

The midterms will also determine governors’ offices in a lot of the country. 

Thirty-six states are electing governors, with several contests potentially changing the balance of power in state governments. Not only do these races matter for statewide policy, but governors can also play an important role in budgeting, vetoing legislation, and potentially redistricting processes. 

Nearly two months before the elections take place, the most competitive races are expected to be in Ohio, Georgia, and Nevada, according to Kalshi traders. 

In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are on the ballot to replace Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who has reached his term limit. Kalshi traders give Acton the slight edge nearly two months before the election.

Term limits also ensure that Georgia has an open-seat race, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are on the ballot. Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, is favored leading to Election Day.

While Democrats are favored in the aforementioned open-seat races, Republican incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo is seeking another term in Nevada. As it stands, Kalshi traders make the current seat holder the favorite for his second term in an election where Democrat Aaron Ford is also on the ballot. 

Election expectations fluctuate well before the actual voting begins on November 3. 

National polling and candidate news can influence perceptions of the overall political environment, with individual Senate and congressional races moving sharply based on debates, scandals, or other national events.

Prediction markets like Kalshi provide a way to follow those changing expectations in real-time. As new data and information is presented, market prices change immediately to reflect traders’ latest expectations on how midterm election voters will break in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

One way to view the broader picture of shifting political power is with Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW). KPOW provides a holistic view of the balance of political power in the United States, combining future market expectations with current data to derive a single measure for evaluation by traders and researchers.

As the midterm elections approach, it’s important to note that the ultimate battle for Congress will likely come down to a few key races. 

Nearly two months before the midterm election takes place, Democrats are favored to retake the House from Republicans, and their odds have also overtaken Republicans in the fight for the Senate. But the path to control of each chamber of congress is not equal, as a handful of competitive congressional and Senate races will ultimately decide which party ends up in control.

For example, voters in key Senate races in Texas, Maine, and Ohio will be important determiners of whether or not Republicans maintain control of the chamber, or yield it to the Democrats, and the outcome will greatly affect the remainder of the second Trump presidency.

Between now and November 3, polling changes, candidate developments, and major political events could continue to change the expectations of political power. 

Kalshi’s election markets allow users to follow those changes in real-time, offering another way to follow the nation’s unfolding political landscape. 

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