The market for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is tightening. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a narrow lead at 17%, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15% and Sen. Jon Ossoff at 14%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Gavin Newsom's affair
Newsom's market price declined after details of a 2005 affair resurfaced.
Vanity Fair published an essay by Ruby Rippey who worked as Newsom's appointments secretary and the wife of his campaign manager, Alex Tourk, while he served as the mayor of San Francisco.
ABC7 News reported that Rippey criticized Newsom for the way he described the affair when he admitted to it in 2007. Rippey said the affair began in 2005, during a period when she was struggling with alcohol addiction. The #MeToo movement “opened her eyes to the power imbalance in their relationship.”
“Both things are true: I am responsible for what I did,” Rippey wrote. “Power does not distribute consequences evenly. For my former boss, it is a footnote in a longer arc of ascent. For me, it is the fracture that split me into before and after.”
Newsom described the affair as the “briefest of affairs” and admitted to his actions to Tourk. Rippey wrote, “That detail, subtle but significant, is the one that stays with me. It reads, to me, at least as a version of events that gives him credit for something I had already done.”
Newsom used to be married to former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle, but the couple filed for divorce at the time of the affair. News of the affair became a “stumbling block” for Newsom's political ambitions. The affair, however, did not hurt his re-election chances since he won another term with 73% of the vote.
“Tourk resigned after confronting Newsom about it, and Newsom later held a news conference where he said, ‘Everything you read is true and I’m deeply sorry for that.’”
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
The New York representative has not officially announced her campaign for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, but she has become a formidable force on Capitol Hill.
CNN also reported that even though she remains undecided about her presidential ambitions, she is “positioning herself to try to reach nationally beyond the deepest blue parts of the Democratic base and making clear in private that whatever she decides, she has no interest in being merely a protest candidate.”
One of her close aides told CNN that they definitely see “an opening, definitely among swingy independents, but also among Republicans” for her possible presidential campaign.
Jon Ossoff
Ossoff has said he is not interested in seeking a presidential bid, but he has become one of President Donald Trump's most vocal opponents and political observers see presidential potential.
The Atlantic's David A. Graham wrote that Ossoff is “a politician who can deliver a strong message or moment in one to two minutes [that] will inevitably draw lots of attention. Like his fellow Millennial Zohran Mamdani, Ossoff seems to have a knack for it.”
Graham also noted his plain way of speaking truth to power and his “authenticity” as a political leader.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Newsom winning the Democratic presidential nomination: 17%
Ocasio-Cortez winning the Democratic presidential nomination: 15%
Ossoff winning the Democratic presidential nomination: 14%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
