Argentina vs. Switzerland predictions: The defending World Cup champs are favored, but the Swiss are holding a grudge

The second 2026 World Cup quarterfinal of the day kicks off Saturday evening in Kansas City, where defending champions Argentina face Switzerland at Arrowhead Stadium. Norway and England settled the first semifinal spot earlier in the afternoon; now Lionel Messi and a Swiss side making its first quarterfinal appearance in 72 years battle for the other.

Kalshi traders give Argentina a 75% chance to advance, with Switzerland at 26%. The gap is wide, but Switzerland has already done the hard part: getting here. Gregor Kobel has been the tournament's best goalkeeper, conceding nothing in 210 minutes of knockout football before the penalty shootout against Colombia.

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A win puts the victor into a World Cup semifinal on July 15 in Atlanta, where the prize is a final against either Spain or France, both already through on the other side of the bracket. For Argentina, victory would mean a shot at back-to-back World Cup titles, something no nation has achieved since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. For Switzerland, a semifinal would be the deepest run in Swiss World Cup history, surpassing three previous quarterfinal exits, the last of which came on home soil in 1954.

The winner of this match will also face the winner of Norway vs. England in the semifinal, with that quarterfinal wrapping up earlier in the day at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Lionel Scaloni's side topped Group J with three wins from three, beating Austria, Jordan, and Algeria, and have looked both imperious and fragile in the knockout rounds.

In the round of 32, Argentina were pushed to extra time by Cape Verde before winning 3-2. The round of 16 against Egypt was even more dramatic: trailing 2-0 with 15 minutes remaining, Cristian Romero pulled one back in the 79th minute before Messi equalized four minutes later and Enzo Fernandez headed in the winner in stoppage time. It was the first time in World Cup history a team had won a knockout match in regulation after trailing by two goals with 15 minutes left.

Messi has been the tournament's defining player. Eight goals in five appearances, including strikes in each of Argentina's five matches, the first player to score in all five of a team's first five games at a World Cup since Rivaldo in 2002. His career World Cup tally stands at 21, the all-time record. At 39, operating in what is almost certainly his sixth and final World Cup, Messi told reporters after the Egypt match that he was "desperate" for the journey to continue, and then went out and made sure it did.

Switzerland, however, has a particular claim on Messi's attention. He created nine chances against the Swiss in their 2014 round-of-16 meeting, his most against any opponent at a World Cup, and Argentina scraped through 1-0 in extra time via Angel Di Maria's 118th-minute goal. Messi knows this opponent.

Murat Yakin's side topped Group B with wins over Bosnia and Herzegovina and Canada, drew with Qatar, then beat Algeria 2-0 in the round of 32. The round of 16 against Colombia was as tense as it gets: goalless after 120 minutes, Switzerland prevailed 4-3 on penalties as Kobel saved Cucho Hernandez's spot-kick and Ruben Vargas converted the winner despite not being fit enough to start the match.

The 72-year gap between this quarterfinal and their last, a 7-5 defeat to Austria in 1954 that remains the highest-scoring match in World Cup history, is the longest such drought for any team in tournament history. Switzerland are here because of defensive organization, Kobel's reflexes, and the twin threat of Breel Embolo and Johan Manzambi up front. Manzambi, the 20-year-old breakout star of the tournament, is out injured, a significant blow to the Swiss attack.

Switzerland have not forgotten their last meeting with Argentina. The defending champions eliminated the Swiss 1-0 in extra time in the 2014 World Cup round of 16, with Angel Di Maria's 118th-minute goal settling it. Captain Granit Xhaka, 33, was in that squad and has carried the result with him for 12 years. Reflecting on that defeat ahead of Saturday's match, Xhaka told reporters at Fox Sports: "It was not the most pleasant moment. Now, 12 years later, we are back and this time, we will try to win."

On the reach-the-final market, Argentina sit at 45% to make the World Cup final, with Switzerland at 7%. France leads all remaining teams at 59%, with Spain at 42%, a sign of just how formidable the potential final opponents would be regardless of who comes through Kansas City.

On the outright market, France lead at 37% to lift the trophy, with Spain at 21%. Argentina are priced at 18% to become back-to-back champions, a number that reflects their title credentials and the real questions their knockout performances have raised. Switzerland sit at 2%, a figure that felt fanciful at the start of the tournament and looks a little less absurd now.

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