Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon tonight against Max Holloway, and Kalshi traders believe Holloway has the edge.
Traders on the market for tonight's fight in Las Vegas predict that Holloway will walk away with the win at 72% to 28%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with UFC.
Fight predictions
McGregor and Holloway will enter the Octagon tonight for the first time since 2013, when McGregor won by unanimous decision. Traders seem to think there may be a different winner this time, but sports pundits and MMA fighters have weighed in with their own takes.
Forbes' Trent Reinsmith reports that McGregor is the underdog going into tonight's fight. Reinsmith also noted that McGregor's most recent fights include a TKO win over Donald Cerrone followed by consecutive TKO losses to Dustin Poirier, the second ending with a broken leg.
“Even a Holloway who is nearing the end of his career with a somewhat suspect chin and ability to absorb heavy blows, wins this fight more times than not,” Reinsmith wrote. “The pick is for Holloway to piece up McGregor with volume, and get a knockout after the halfway point of the contest.”
Sports Illustrated reported that UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski is also predicting that Holloway will take home a win tonight.
“Conor will be dangerous enough where we’ll be like ‘Oh s---, Max needs to be careful, but I think he’s gonna do the right things,” Volkanovski said.
Holloway has also expressed confidence heading into the matchup. He told TMZ Sports that he expects a “dangerous Conor McGregor” and that he “can’t wait to punch the guy in the face.”
“When Conor McGregor is involved,” Holloway said, “it’s always a big fight.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Holloway winning the fight: 72%
McGregor winning the fight: 28%
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