Belgium and IR Iran meet today in Los Angeles in a Group G clash that carries far more weight for the Red Devils than the scoreline might suggest. Both sides drew their openers last week, Belgium 1-1 with Egypt and Iran 2-2 with New Zealand, leaving all four teams level on a point heading into Matchday 2.
Kalshi traders currently give Belgium a 69% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 21% and Iran at 12%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
Belgium vs. Iran: What's at stake?
A win for Belgium today would put the Red Devils in firm control of Group G with one match left to play, needing only to avoid a heavy collapse against New Zealand in Vancouver to finish top. A draw or loss would bunch the group back up, with Egypt and New Zealand both still alive heading into the final round of matches on June 26 and 27.
Belgium also leads the way in the market for Group G itself, sitting at 63% to top the group against Egypt's 25%, with Iran a distant 8% and New Zealand at 3%.
Belgium's opening stumble
Belgium needed a second-half rescue to avoid an opening loss to Egypt, falling behind to Emam Ashour's well-taken strike before Romelu Lukaku forced an own goal just 23 seconds after coming off the bench.
"We know how dangerous he can be," Kevin De Bruyne said of Lukaku afterward.
Iran's resilient draw
Iran twice came from behind to hold New Zealand to a 2-2 draw in their tournament opener. Ramin Rezaeian and Mohammad Mohebbi scored Iran's goals, with Mohebbi heading home the equalizer in the 64th minute to deny New Zealand what would have been their first-ever World Cup win, according to Sky Sports.
Iran's preparations were also complicated by training-camp changes tied to the recent US-Iran tensions, adding an unusual backdrop to the team's tournament debut.
The bigger picture
Beyond today's match, Belgium remains a distant long shot to win the World Cup outright, sitting at just 1.6% on Kalshi. Iran is an even longer shot at under 1%.
France continues to lead the tournament-winner market at 19.4%, with Spain at 13.1% and England close behind at 12.9%, the same trio that has topped the board since the opening week of group play.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Your opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
