Rivalry renewed is the theme on Tuesday in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, where Wesley Bell and Cori Bush will square off yet again in a Democratic primary. In the 2024 election cycle, Wesley Bell dropped out of the U.S. Senate race to challenge Bush in the primary, following Bush's controversial remarks about Israel's response to Hamas' October 7th attacks. With the aid of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Bell defeated Bush by roughly six percentage points on his way to winning the deep-blue district around St. Louis.
The two square off again today. Asked about his relationship with Bush, Bell said, "We've never been friends." This rematch centers on Israel once again, even as the two agree on a range of other issues, from Medicare for All to abolishing ICE. In the weeks leading up to the 2024 presidential election, Bush publicly questioned Kamala Harris' stance on Israel, a moment the Bell campaign has since invoked to question her effectiveness in combatting the Trump administration. As in 2024, the Bush campaign has targeted Bell over his AIPAC support. Three incumbent House Democrats backed by AIPAC have already been toppled in their primaries this year, in Colorado and New York.
Bush is endorsed by the likes of Senator Bernie Sanders and the Democratic Socialists of America, while Bell is endorsed by Representative Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus. The race has become yet another proxy battle between the traditional and progressive flanks of the Democratic Party. Bell currently has a 68% chance of securing the nomination.
KPOW
In the last week, KPOW, Kalshi's American Power Index, has moved 0.7 points towards the Democrats. While KPOW still leans towards the GOP, the Democrats' odds of retaking the Senate have moved to their highest point since May. Democrats have a 47% chance of winning the Senate and an 84% chance of winning the House.
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