American Ben Shelton dropped the opening set of his 2026 US Open campaign, but stormed back to win his next three sets, clinching a berth in the second round.
There he’ll face Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, a former world No. 6 and top server who is making his way back from injury following a knee surgery last year.
Kalshi traders currently price Shelton’s odds at 69%, with Hurkacz priced at 31%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.
Shelton vs. Hurkacz: Big servers meet for the first time
While Shelton and Hurkacz have never squared off before, tennis fans likely have some inkling about how the match will unfold when they take the court.
The pair are both renowned for their serving ability, each ranking inside the top-6 in the last year in Serve Rating, a metric which evaluates the quality and effectiveness of a player’s serve.
As a result of their massive and effective serves, the pair are rarely broken. In the last 52 weeks of play, Shelton and Hurkacz rank second and fifth in percentage of service games won, at 90.3% and 89.2%, respectively.
On the other side, both rank outside the top-75 in return rating, the metric which evaluates a player’s return of serve.
The combination could mean breezy service games and tight sets, where one or two points make all the difference.
Kalshi traders currently price the over at 54% for more than 39.5 total games, an indication that breaks of serve may be at a premium in this best-of-five-set match.
The winner of the match will face the winner of the match between Denis Shapovalov and Luca Van Assche. Kalshi traders currently price Shapovalov as a 57% favorite before the match.
Shelton’s US Open path changes after Arthur Fils upset
Shelton entered the US Open as one of the leading contenders outside of the tournament’s biggest favorites, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. But the American’s path to a final has already softened as France’s Arthur Fils fell in the first round against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
That dramatically changes a potential fourth round matchup for Shelton, who would have needed to find his way past Fils for a quarterfinal appearance. Now, should Shelton find his way through the next two rounds, he could potentially draw Tsitsipas instead of Fils.
Although he’s 0-1 against the Greek lifetime, traders still like his chances of advancing, pricing his quarterfinal appearance at 49%, the second-highest in his quarter. Once there, he may have to contend with Alcaraz, the reigning US Open champion who has returned from injury for the event.
Nevertheless, traders see the path to victory for Shelton, who is now tied with fellow American Taylor Fritz for the third best odds to win the open at 9%. At that number, he only trails Alcaraz and Zverev, who are priced at 36% and 21%, respectively as of Wednesday morning.
Shelton surprised in 2023 when he stormed to the semifinals of the US Open, falling to Novak Djokovic in straight-sets. But a semifinal appearance would be less shocking in this tournament, particularly as Djokovic was ousted in the first round, another leading contender from Shelton’s half of the draw that is no longer playing.
His odds to make the semifinals again this year jumped around 7% in the last few days, now trading at 29% as Fils and Djokovic were sent home.
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Image Source: Simon Bruty, USTA
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