The best men’s tennis players in the world are descending upon New York for the final Grand Slam tournament of the 2026 tennis season.
Slated to begin on Sunday, the tournament is highlighted by the return of defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, who is priced at 27% to defend his title.
Those odds got a serious bump earlier this week when world No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament with an injury, drastically shaking up the odds in the process.
But with uncertainty surrounding the level Alcaraz will be able to bring, Sinner’s absence has welcomed a larger group of contenders into the fold.
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Alcaraz leads US Open tournament favorites
Kalshi traders price Carlos Alcaraz as the favorite to earn the trophy at the US Open despite the fact that he hasn’t played a match since April and played no warm-up tournaments prior to his US Open return.
Regardless, the Spaniard is priced at 27% shortly after the draw release on Thursday. That price is down considerably from earlier in the week though, where Alcaraz got as high as 38% on the news that Sinner would not compete.
As the tournament's No. 2 seed, Alcaraz avoids squaring off with Alexander Zverev until a potential tilt in the finals, but to get there he'll need to navigate a strong bottom half of the draw that contains Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils, Toronto champ Ben Shelton, and former US Open winners Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.
Zverev on the other hand is priced at 23% to lift the trophy in New York, up from about 10% when traders believed Sinner would still play. Without Sinner though, the German, who earned his first Grand Slam victory at Roland Garros earlier this year, is the tournament's top seed and now the only player in his half of the draw to win a Grand Slam title.
Expected to be a big favorite in his first few matches, Zverev’s stiffest competition enroute to the finals could come from a potential quarterfinal matchup with Rafael Jodar.
Novak Djokovic, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, is the only other men’s player with odds above 10%, priced at 11% shortly after the draw was revealed on Thursday. At age 39, Djokovic has been outclassed late in Grand Slams by Sinner and Alcaraz during the last couple of seasons. But now, Sinner is not in the draw, and Alcaraz is coming back from injury after more than four months off.
As the tournament’s No. 4 seed, Djokovic could meet Alcaraz in a blockbuster semifinal matchup.
Room for others? Fritz, Fils highlight next level of US Open contenders
Zverev’s triumph at Roland Garros earlier this year marked the first time since 2021 that a player not named Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Nadal won a Grand Slam title.
But Nadal has retired, Sinner is out, Alcaraz is returning from injury, and Djokovic is 39 years old. As a result, Kalshi traders must ponder, is there room for a bigger group of contenders at the US Open this year?
As it stands, outside the top trio, only four other players find themselves with at least a 5% chance of grabbing the title: Arthur Fils, Taylor Fritz, Rafael Jodar, and Ben Shelton.
Fils is the leader of the group, priced at 7% after the draw was revealed on Thursday. The Frenchman just reigned supreme in Cincinnati, flashing his powerful forehand on his way to the title.
The trouble for Fils and Shelton (5%) is that the pair could end up facing each other in the fourth round, and that’s before any matchup with Alcaraz or Djokovic on the way to the final.
On the other half of the draw are Fritz (6%) and Jodar (5%).
Jodar, who has burst onto the scene this year, would need to scrap through the top seed Zverev in the quarterfinal round. Meanwhile, Fritz, who was eliminated by Zverev in the Wimbledon quarterfinals earlier this year, wouldn't face him until the semifinals if both were to get there.
Whose odds benefitted most from US Open men's singles draw?
Kalshi traders priced a handful of men as title contenders in New York this year, but the draw reveal prompted some subtle odds movement that may further concentrate trader’s attention.
Odds for top seed Alexander Zverev, which doubled after the withdrawal of Jannik Sinner, kept climbing, jumping 4% after the men’s single draw was revealed on Thursday. Perhaps that’s because Zverev wouldn’t face anyone with pre-tournament odds of 5% or better until the quarterfinals, where he could face Rafa Jodar.
Similarly, at the bottom of Zverev’s half, Taylor Fritz saw his odds jump after the draw. Though Fritz is the No. 9 seed, he’s one of just a few players in the half that have been to a Grand Slam final before, having reached the US Open final in 2024.
Both Flavio Cobolli and Felix Auger-Aliassme, also in the Zverev/Fritz half, had odds move about 1% in their favor.
Carlos Alcaraz briefly traded as high as 38% when the Sinner news broke, but his odds have been falling ever since. He entered Thursday morning priced around 26%, ultimately falling around 1% after his path was cemented.
Only Ben Shelton suffered a steeper drop, dipping 3% after being placed in the Alcaraz/Djokovic half.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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