Bitcoin’s selloff has strengthened bearish sentiment across key Kalshi markets. After sliding to its lowest level since April, falling as far as $86,325 on Thursday, Kalshi traders now suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency may test deeper 2025 lows before year-end.

The slide extends a month-long retreat documented by Bloomberg, which reported Bitcoin falling below $87,000 as liquidity remained thin and large holders continued to unwind positions. Sentiment weakened further after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data pushed traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s path. On Kalshi, the December Fed decision market now prices a 63% chance the Fed holds rates steady and a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point cut.

The pricing in this market shows that traders are evaluating the likelihood of a further slide rather than a near-term recovery. There is currently a 55% chance that BTC once again falls below $80,000 before the year ends, and a 20% chance it falls below $70,000.

The shift in Kalshi sentiment mirrors stress in institutional flows.
On Tuesday, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the largest daily outflow since its launch, more than $523 million, according to The Block. The fund has seen five straight days of withdrawals, totaling over $1.43 billion, and four consecutive weeks of net outflows.

The Block notes that institutions are “recalibrating” rather than abandoning Bitcoin outright, but the steady de-risking has added noticeable selling pressure at a time when market depth remains limited.

Ether also weakened on Thursday, falling well below $3,000, CNBC reported. In the Ethereum downside market on Kalshi, traders are focused on lower year-end thresholds similar to the Bitcoin market. Activity around deeper strikes suggests participants are evaluating the potential for ETH to retest recent lows as ETF flows and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.

Broader sentiment remains weak across other major cryptocurrencies.
Kalshi’s “crypto being positive” market shows a clear ordering of expectations: Ripple remains the most likely among the group to finish the year positive, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin trail behind. The precise probabilities vary, but the relative ranking underscores how narrow traders see the path to year-end gains across the asset class.

In Kalshi’s Bitcoin vs. gold market, traders overwhelmingly favor gold to outperform Bitcoin this year. The market is heavily skewed toward the gold outcome, reflecting a broader flight to safety as investors respond to strong economic data, uncertain Fed policy, and ongoing liquidity concerns in crypto.

With key government data delayed and the Federal Reserve’s December decision still clouded by uneven economic signals, market participants lack a firm macro anchor heading into year-end. In that environment, Kalshi traders continue to lean toward additional weakness in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, consistent with broader signs of risk aversion across ETFs and spot markets.

Kalshi traders are signaling:

For now, the prediction markets suggest the crypto downturn isn’t finished — and new 2025 lows remain on the table.

Sources: Bloomberg, Nov. 20, 2025; The Block, Nov. 19, 2025; CNBC, Nov. 20, 2025.
Image Source: Erling Løken Andersen

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