“Uptober” is off to a good start for Bitcoin.
The largest crypto asset by market cap has gained more than 3% month-to-date, steadying above $86,000 in the process.
Amid the rally, Kalshi traders have repriced odds of BTC to break through $99,999.99 this year, now pricing the feat at 40%, up four percentage points since the month began.
Will it continue its run this October? What about through the rest of the year?
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
How high will Bitcoin go in October? In 2026?
On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high price above $126,000. Exactly one year later, the asset is changing hands around $86,000, nearly 32% off the high watermark.
Kalshi traders have become more optimistic about BTC’s near-term price forecast amid its recent rally. Traders are now forecasting a move as high as $91,000 during October, with odds of it exceeding $90,000 priced at 63% as of Tuesday morning.
Historically, October has been one of BTC’s strongest months of returns, posting a historical average return of more than 18%, according to data from CoinGlass. Recent technical analysis may support a more bullish view on its near-term price as well.
But traders have also repriced odds for the asset to make even larger gains on a slightly longer time horizon.
Odds of Bitcoin breaching $99,999.99 by the end of the year are now trading around 40%, up 30 percentage points since mid-August 2026. A steeper move to more than $109,999.99 is priced at 20%.
Kalshi traders improving odds for BTC to cross $130,000 by July
Kalshi traders’ near-term optimism may also be evidenced by increasing odds for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high price and cross $130,000.
Odds for the feat to occur before July 8, 2027 are now priced at 31%, up eight percentage points since the market opened. A quicker surge, like one to $130,000 by January 21, 2027, is priced at 10% as traders weigh the odds of a significant Q4 boost from BTC.
Those price bumps would outpace some recent forecasts from notable financial institutions. For example, last week Citigroup raised its 12-month BTC forecast nearly 38%. However, the jump moved its forecasted price from $82,000 to $113,000, well below the $130,000 marker.
Bitcoin the most likely cryptocurrency to finish the year positive
Despite spending most of the year in a drawdown, Bitcoin is on the verge of flipping green in 2026, now down just 1.43% year-to-date.
Its recent strength has pushed up its odds of ending the year with a positive return, with Kalshi traders pricing it as the most likely cryptocurrency to do so, with odds trading around 61%.
In addition to an uptick in ETF inflows, other technical bull signals are flashing, showcasing signs that a BTC run may be in store as the year draws to a close.
Only two other crypto assets have at least a 50% chance to finish positive in 2026 according to Kalshi traders: Stellar Lumens (XLM) and Chainlink (LINK).
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