Brazil presidential odds and predictions: Bolsonaro maintains lead as runoff approaches

While Senator Flávio Bolsonaro continues to hold a sizable lead on Kalshi's market for the Brazilian presidential election, incumbent President Lula is trying to make gains as voters prepare to head to the polls for a second time this month.

Following Bolsonaro's surprising first-place finish in early October, his chances of victory on Kalshi climbed to an all-time high of 88% by October 9th. Those odds have since shifted, with Bolsonaro's chances now at 84% as the runoff approaches.

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Bolsonaro's October 4th performance caught many political observers off guard after polling had indicated Lula was likely to finish ahead in the first round.

Bolsonaro ultimately received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with Lula's 45.16%, narrowly missing the majority required to avoid a runoff.

With neither candidate receiving over 50%, the race now comes down to a direct contest between the incumbent president and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Both campaigns have spent the final weeks working to consolidate support from voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round. Economic concerns, government spending, crime, and Brazil's relationship with the United States have also emerged as major campaign issues.

125 million votes are expected to be cast in the Brazilian presidential runoff.

With Brazilian polling data showing an exceedingly close race, turnout could prove to be one of the most consequential factors in Sunday's election.

Approximately 33.5 million Brazilians did not participate in the first round, while another six million cast ballots that were ultimately invalidated. Both campaigns are looking to reach these voters as the second round approaches.

However, changing voter preferences may prove difficult this late in the race. Datafolha's latest survey found that 94% of voters say they have already made their final decision, leaving little room for movement among those planning to vote.

Another factor is the distribution of support from first-round candidates who failed to advance. Many of these candidates appealed to conservative voters, although their supporters are not necessarily united behind Bolsonaro.

While recent polling indicates the gap has narrowed, Kalshi odds have shifted less dramatically, with Flávio Bolsonaro holding the lead since early September after previously being a heavy underdog throughout the summer. Traders currently project a Bolsonaro win with an expected margin of victory between 3-6%.

While Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead, Lula is chipping away at the margin. After Lula's odds reached an all-time low of 12% on October 9th, they have since doubled.

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