Flávio Bolsonaro has moved ahead of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Kalshi's Brazil presidential election market. The market for Brazil's presidential election winner shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading at 55%, followed by Lula at 44%.
Brazil will hold the first round of its presidential election in October.
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What do the polls say?
Recent polling also shows the gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing in a potential runoff.
Reuters reported that an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released last Thursday showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula statistically tied in a hypothetical second-round matchup, with Bolsonaro at 46.4% and Lula at 46.2%.
The difference between the two candidates was much wider in polling data in a first-round scenario. The same pollster showed Lula leading 43.4% to 33.7% in July.
Lula's son faces scrutiny
Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a military coup in 2022 after losing the presidential election. However, Lula's campaign is also facing scrutiny over investigations involving his eldest son.
Valor International reported that Lula’s oldest son, Fabio, who is also known as “Lulinha,” is “the subject of three investigations at the [Brazilian] Supreme Court, which were opened following developments in the investigation into fraud at the National Social Security Institute [INSS].”
The investigations stem from Operation Sem Desconto, a probe into allegedly illegal deductions from INSS retirement and pension payments.
According to investigative material reported by Valor International, conversations from 2014 showed Lulinha and lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger discussing how “their future would be ‘Switzerland.’”
The leaked material also indicated that Lulinha and Luchsinger met with former presidential chief of staff Marco Aurélio Santana Ribeiro, known as Marcola. The conversations between Luchsinger and Marcola showed “the lobbyist purchased jewelry for Lula’s then-adviser, as well as a message in which she shared with Marcola a draft contract for the sale of cannabidiol.”
Lulinha’s defense team denied wrongdoing, saying that he moved to Spain “even before the launch of Operation Sem Desconto.”
Marcola also denied passing sensitive documents to anyone else.
“The former adviser has publicly acknowledged receiving money from Roberta while he held the position, but said it was a loan that he repaid in full in the amount of R$249,000,” Valor International reported. “He nevertheless left Lula’s reelection campaign team after the case came to light.”
U.S. involvement in Brazil's election
The Trump administration has also faced accusations of trying to influence the Brazilian election in Bolsonaro's favor.
The Guardian’s Tom Phillips reported that President Donald Trump “and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, have been accused of trying to tip the scales in Bolsonaro’s favor by launching an overt campaign of economic and diplomatic pressure against Lula.”
Some of the alleged measures include “imposing 25% tariffs on most Brazilian imports and designating Brazil’s biggest crime groups – Rio’s Red Command and São Paulo’s First Command of the Capital – as foreign terrorist organizations. Brazilian officials suspect this is partly designed to boost Bolsonaro by making Lula look soft on crime.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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