Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in Kalshi's California gubernatorial election market.
Traders have priced Becerra with a 96% chance of victory, compared to 4% for Hilton.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What does the polling say?
A recent poll also gives Becerra an advantage over Hilton, albeit polling odds are lower than Kalshi’s prediction market-implied probability.
The Desert Sun reported that an ActiVote poll found Becerra leading with 62.8% of likely voters, followed by Hilton with 37.2%.
Becerra ramps up appearances
Becerra made some public appearances since his late-September debate with Hilton, marking a noticeable change in pace for the Democratic candidate, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Prior to his recent appearances, Becerra kept a low public profile during the general election campaign, earning him criticism from his Republican opponent.
Becerra defended his campaign, saying he held events last week with constituents in Los Angeles, Santa Clarita, and Glendale, adding that he prefers spending time directly with voters than in front of television cameras.
“I am gonna talk to voters,” Becerra said. “I will talk to them until November the 3rd, and then I’ll be ready to talk to voters and taxpayers and the people of California when I’m the next governor.”
Meanwhile, Hilton has held 14 public events across the state in September for what the Los Angeles Times described as his “long-shot bid for governor.” Becerra had two public events during the same month, per the Los Angeles Times.
Hilton has criticized Becerra's limited public appearances, accusing his Democratic opponent of taking voters for granted.
“He is a useless nothing, a totally unaccomplished pipsqueak who is so smug, so arrogant, so entitled, that he somehow thinks he’s owed this job just because he was picked as a useful puppet by the Sacramento machine,” Hilton said during a campaign stop in Sacramento.
The California governor's debate
Becerra and Hilton met on September 30 at CNN’s Burbank studios for their only debate.
The debate grew contentious, with Hilton questioning Becerra's qualifications and Becerra tying his Republican opponent to President Donald Trump, the Guardian reported.
“He wasn’t even supposed to be the candidate,” Hilton said, referring to Becerra’s primary campaign. “I just want to ask every Californian: aren’t you tired of that?”
During a discussion about regulating artificial intelligence, Becerra said, “If you listen closely, you can hear Donald Trump in that response.”
Even though they clashed over voter identification requirements and immigration policy, the candidates found common ground in opposing Proposition 40, a November ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on California billionaires' wealth.
The two candidates remain separated by 92 percentage points on Kalshi's California governor market.
LA Mayor’s race
The Los Angeles mayoral race is much tighter.
On Wednesday, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass reclaimed a lead over challenger Nithya Raman, as Kalshi traders have priced in a 54% chance of Bass winning the mayoral election, a 5.8% percentage point increase from the day prior when she trailed the candidate backed by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Traders pricing in a higher probability for Bass comes as the incumbent mayor announced relief for Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) customers strained by high utility bills, according to a Tuesday statement from the Office of Mayor Bass.
Bass said Angelenos can pay what they can afford and asked the LADWP Board to pause utility shutoffs for the remainder of the year for customers coping with bills after record heat.
“With outrageous gasoline prices and inflation driving up grocery bills and the cost of living, we don't want anyone overwhelmed by a utility bill,” Bass said in a statement. “Angelenos need swift relief, and I am taking concrete action to provide it.”
Raman’s probability now sits at 46%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Mario Tama
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
