Chris Cillizza is a veteran political analyst with more than two decades of experience covering politics for major news outlets including The Washington Post and CNN. He joins Kalshi News as a guest commentator covering the 2026 midterms. Follow him on Substack and YouTube.
I have NEVER seen a Senate race polled more – and with incredibly similar results – than the Texas contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
Need proof? In the last 10 days, there have been 10 separate polls released on the race. TEN!
And guess what? They all show – essentially – the same thing: Talarico leads Paxton narrowly. (Of the 10 surveys, two show the race tied and the other eight have Talarico leads between two and five points.)
Why are there so many people polling Texas? Because it’s the race that even casual watchers of the 2026 midterms know about. The storylines are irresistible: A young, Bible-quoting, telegenic Democrat against a MAGA Republican who was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas state House. And in a state that Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in more than three decades – and is the symbolic heart and center of the modern GOP.
(Sidebar: Democrats winning a Texas Senate seat would be like Republicans doing the same in California. Yes, it’s one Senate seat. But the importance of such an upset extends well beyond a single state/seat.)
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
The race has drawn massive volume in the Kalshi markets. More than $40 million(!!!) has already been traded on the race, and my guess is that number will go far higher in the final 11 days before Election Day. (Maine, by contrast, despite being a VERY competitive contest in its own right, has only seen $14 million in volume.)
By now, you are very likely familiar with the state of the overall Talarico-Paxton market. From the start of the race until early September, Paxton was favored by Kalshi traders. But since Labor Day(ish), Talarico’s odds have looked better and better. As of Friday afternoon, Talarico was at a 66% probability of winning – matching the highest he has ever been in the market.
While much of the action is on that horserace market, there are a bunch of other Texas Senate-related markets that I think are intriguing to look at as we enter the final sprint before Election Day.
Here are a few I am keeping a close eye on:
Texas Senate + Texas governor
Right now, Talarico is a favorite in the Senate market and Gov. Greg Abbott is favored in the governor's market (Abbott is at a 74% probability of beating state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.) The market that combines the results is one I am fascinated by, however. Particularly the fact that you could buy a Democratic sweep – Talarico + Hinojosa is at 25% right now – which is a tasty underdog investment on the notion that something BIG is going on in Texas.
Want to hedge? On the other end of the spectrum, a 32% probability that Republicans win both the Senate and governor’s races in a state Donald Trump won by 14 points in 2024 and where Democrats haven’t won a statewide office since 1994 looks pretty good too!
Texas Senate + Maine Senate
Two very different states with Senate races that are both expected to be quite close. And there’s a market to get involved in that allows you to trade in both! For me, the Susan Collins/James Talarico “win” line is the one I am watching most closely.
I think that could well happen – Collins is a uniquely good candidate while Paxton is a uniquely bad candidate – and right now there is only a 10% probability of that outcome in the market.
Texas Senate margin of victory
While there are markets for both a Talarico win margin and a Paxton win margin, let's concentrate on the Talarico one – because I think he is the more likely winner as of today. First of all, who are the people (9.8% probability) who think Talarico is going to win by nine or more points?!?! Do I need to remind you that the last Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988??? What am I on crazy pills here?!
To me, the better investment – by far – is on the lower end of Talarico's winning margin; I just think a bunch of Republicans are going to hold their noses and vote for Paxton when the rubber meets the road. Given that, I like Talarico's winning margin at 2 points or more (49%).
Closer race: Texas or Alaska
As I said above, I think Texas winds up being closer than the polls suggest today. And I think former Alaska Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola wins by more than polls suggest she will over Sen. Dan Sullivan (and two other Republican candidates – one of which is also named Dan Sullivan). Which is why this market intrigues me.
While Texas has long been the favorite to be closer in this market, the number has dropped considerably of late; Texas is now at 48% to 46% for Alaska. I love Texas there.
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